Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) Reaches New 12-Month Low - Time to Sell?
Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) shares recently hit a new 52-week low of $12.51, trading down around 13.5% from its previous close, despite reporting in-line earnings and a revenue beat. The company's EPS came in at $0.25 (matching estimates) with revenue of $707.7 million (up 16.5% year-over-year), and it provided Q1 and FY 2026 guidance. Analysts are mixed, with a "Moderate Buy" consensus and an average price target of $34, even after some recent target cuts and rating changes.
GEO Group And CoreCivic Stocks Are Getting Beaten Up Today – Why Such A Selloff?
Shares of GEO Group and CoreCivic are experiencing a significant selloff due to reports that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) plans to reduce its network of private detention facilities. This move would shift from a mixed model to a centralized system primarily using government-owned facilities, heavily impacting the revenue streams of these private prison companies. ICE contracts currently account for a substantial portion of both GEO Group's and CoreCivic's projected revenues.
The GEO Group: Out Of Favor, But Many Paths To A Partial Rebound (NYSE:GEO)
The GEO Group (GEO) has experienced a significant sell-off despite recent contract wins and expansion by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), creating a more attractive entry point for investors. The company's valuation, evidenced by an EV/EBITDA of 6.8x, suggests potential for EBITDA growth through 2029. Despite ongoing political controversy, stable ICE funding and share buybacks could support an upside, potentially leading to a near-term rebound into the mid-$20s per share.
Protesters target private prison office over proposed ICE detention facility
Protesters in North Carolina are organizing against a proposed ICE detention facility in Winton, one of three new facilities planned in the state. Demonstrators gathered outside the Charlotte office of GEO Group, which owns the Winton site, expressing shock and concern over the lack of transparency surrounding the plans. The ACLU is involved, highlighting that GEO Group previously lost federal contracts for the Winton site due to safety issues.
GEO Group (GEO) Valuation After Record Contract Wins And CEO Transition
GEO Group (GEO) is experiencing renewed interest following a year of substantial new and expanded government contracts and the return of founder Dr. George Zoley as CEO. While one popular narrative suggests the company is significantly undervalued at $32.25 per share, considering its debt reduction and share repurchase program, Simply Wall St's DCF model indicates overvaluation at $11.21. Investors are left to weigh these differing valuations against potential future growth and risks related to government policy regarding private detention.
GEO Group (GEO) One Off Gain Driven EPS Spike Tests Bullish Earnings Narratives
GEO Group's recent FY 2025 financial results show a significant EPS spike to US$1.85, largely influenced by a one-off gain of US$186.3 million in Q3 2025. This has led to contrasting narratives among investors, with bulls highlighting improved net margins and bears pointing to the volatility and non-recurring nature of the gain. The company's P/E ratio of 7.6x is significantly lower than industry averages, but its share price is currently above its DCF fair value, creating tension for investors evaluating its future earnings potential and financing risks.
Founder Returns As GEO Group Activates US$520m Contracts And Seeks Value
GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) has announced the return of its founder, Dr. George C. Zoley, as CEO, coinciding with the activation of approximately $520 million in annualized contracts and significant facility expansions. The company's stock currently trades well below analyst targets and an estimated fair value, despite recent operational growth. Investors are now focused on how the change in leadership will impact capital allocation, contract management, and overall balance sheet discipline as the company integrates these new business wins.
The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE:GEO) Q4 2025 earnings call transcript
This document is an earnings call transcript for The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE:GEO) for the fourth quarter of 2025. It details the company's financial performance and discussions during the call.
Geo Group Q4 Earnings Call Highlights
Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) reported a highly active year in 2025, marked by record contract wins, facility activations, and increased demand for its services, particularly in federal immigration enforcement. The company secured new contracts worth approximately $520 million in annualized revenues and activated five ICE facilities, adding about 6,000 beds. Financially, GEO reported Q4 2025 revenue of $708 million and net income of $32 million, with strong guidance for 2026.
The GEO Group Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results
The GEO Group (NYSE: GEO) announced strong financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, with significant increases in net income and revenues. The company highlighted new business wins totaling approximately $520 million in annualized revenues, expanded contracts for correctional and detention services, and a $500 million share repurchase program. For 2026, GEO Group provided initial financial guidance, projecting GAAP Net Income per diluted share of $0.99 to $1.07 and Adjusted EBITDA between $490 million and $510 million.
The GEO Group Announces Corporate Reorganization
The GEO Group announced a corporate reorganization, including the retirement of CEO J. David Donahue and the return of founder Dr. George C. Zoley as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Dr. Zoley, who previously served as CEO for many years, will lead the company through a period of expected growth opportunities. GEO is a diversified government service provider specializing in secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry services globally.
This Private Prison Group Wants to Operate ICE’s Warehouses. It Also Called the Plans ‘Concerning.’
Geo Group, a major private prison contractor, is "cautiously participating" in the procurement process to operate large warehouse detention centers for ICE, despite its executive chair, George Zoley, acknowledging the significant challenges and "concerning" operational implications of retrofitting and managing such facilities. The company is actively seeking sites in Sun Belt and Republican states, hoping to minimize political resistance to the Trump administration's warehouse strategy which aims to house up to 8,500 detainees. This initiative has already faced bipartisan backlash in various towns, leading to a Mississippi warehouse plan being reconsidered due to local concerns.
Despite Increased Profits, Private Prison Companies Want to Cage Even More People
Private prison companies CoreCivic and GEO Group saw record profits in 2025 due to increased ICE detentions, yet investors expressed desires for even higher numbers. Both companies highlighted their capacity to detain thousands more immigrants and expressed readiness to expand their services, despite documented inhumane conditions in some of their facilities and the concerns raised by human rights groups.
Earnings call transcript: Geo Group misses EPS forecast, stock drops 13%
Geo Group Inc. (GEO) announced its Q4 2025 earnings, reporting an EPS of $0.25, below the forecast of $0.27, despite revenues of $707.7 million exceeding expectations. This mixed performance led to a 13.77% drop in its stock price in premarket trading. The company's management discussed strategic growth initiatives, including new contracts for ICE monitoring and secure transportation services, and provided guidance for 2026, anticipating revenue between $2.9 billion and $3.1 billion with normalized margins in the latter half of the year.
Owner of Michigan ICE detention center reported $254M profit last year
GEO Group, a private prison company that operates the largest immigration detention center in Michigan, reported $254 million in profits last year due to new federal contracts and expanded ICE facilities under the Trump administration. Despite this, the company's stock prices slumped, and investor confidence has waned as the expansion of detention space has taken longer than expected. The company's CEO noted potential new business opportunities from the administration's look into converting warehouses into large-scale detention centers.
Geo Group: Q4 Earnings Snapshot
Geo Group Inc. (GEO) reported a fourth-quarter profit of $31.8 million, or 23 cents per share, aligning with Wall Street expectations after adjustments. The private prison operator's revenue for the quarter was $707.7 million, exceeding analyst forecasts. For the full year, Geo Group posted a profit of $254.4 million and projected future revenues between $680 million and $690 million for the current quarter.
Geo Group (GEO) Q4 Earnings Match Estimates
Geo Group (GEO) reported Q4 earnings of $0.25 per share, matching the Zacks Consensus Estimate and surpassing earnings from the previous year. The company's revenues for the quarter were $707.7 million, exceeding analyst expectations. Despite underperforming the market year-to-date, the stock currently holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
GEO Group Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results
GEO Group announced strong financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, with significant increases in total revenues and net income. The company also expanded its ICE detention capacity, completed strategic asset sales, and repurchased shares. For 2026, GEO Group provided optimistic financial guidance, projecting higher GAAP net income and Adjusted EBITDA.
The GEO Group Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results
The GEO Group reported strong financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, with significant increases in net income and total revenues. The company also highlighted major operational achievements in 2025, including new contracts for ICE detainees, expanded secure transportation services, and the sale of certain facilities, while providing initial financial guidance for 2026.
The GEO Group Announces Corporate Reorganization
The GEO Group announced a corporate reorganization plan, including the retirement of CEO J. David Donahue on February 28, 2026. Dr. George C. Zoley, the company's founder, will return as Chairman and CEO under an amended employment agreement starting March 1, 2026, through April 2, 2029. Dr. Zoley expressed his anticipation for a period of significant growth opportunities for the company.
GEO founder returns as CEO in 2026, eyeing ‘significant growth’ ahead
The GEO Group announced that its CEO, J. David Donahue, will retire on February 28, 2026. Founder and Executive Chairman, Dr. George C. Zoley, will return as Chairman and CEO under an amended employment agreement effective March 1, 2026, through April 2, 2029. Dr. Zoley expressed anticipation for a period of significant growth opportunities for the company.
No rehearing for GEO Group
The Ninth Circuit denied The GEO Group Inc.'s request for an en banc rehearing regarding a panel decision. This decision had vacated a preliminary injunction against a Washington state law aimed at protecting immigrant detainees. Eight judges dissented from the denial, viewing the case as part of Washington's efforts against the federal government's use of contractors for immigration enforcement.
GEO Group (GEO) Q4 Earnings Report Preview: What To Look For
GEO Group (NYSE:GEO), a private corrections company, is scheduled to report its Q4 earnings on Thursday. Analysts anticipate revenue growth of 10.1% year-on-year to $669.1 million and adjusted earnings of $0.25 per share. The company has a history of missing Wall Street's revenue estimates, and its stock has underperformed peers recently, down 5.6% over the last month.
Allianz Asset Management GmbH Sells 81,464 Shares of Geo Group Inc (The) $GEO
Allianz Asset Management GmbH reduced its stake in The GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) by 6.4% in the third quarter, selling 81,464 shares and now holding 1,190,080 shares valued at approximately $24.4 million. Despite the reduction, analysts maintain a "Moderate Buy" consensus rating with a $35.00 price target, following positive earnings results where GEO beat expectations with $0.25 EPS and 13.1% revenue growth. The stock currently trades around $15.89 with a market cap of $2.21 billion.
Detainees sue GEO Group, allege sexual assaults, beatings and cover-ups at Tacoma ICE facility
Three Black men detained at the Northwest ICE Processing Center in Tacoma have filed a lawsuit against GEO Group, the facility operator, alleging sexual assaults, violent beatings, and retaliation by guards. The lawsuit also claims that Tacoma police failed to independently investigate these serious complaints, often deferring to the GEO Group's internal probes. This action follows previous reports highlighting concerns about oversight, mistreatment, and inadequate police response at the facility.
Geo Group Inc (The) (NYSE:GEO) Given Average Rating of "Moderate Buy" by Brokerages
Geo Group Inc (NYSE:GEO) has received a "Moderate Buy" consensus rating from five brokerages, with an average 1-year price target of $35.00. The company recently reported strong financial results, beating EPS estimates with a 13.1% increase in revenue, and institutional investors hold 76.10% of the stock. Despite this, the stock trades near $15.68 with a market capitalization of $2.18 billion.
ICE-Cold Cash: Private Prison Companies and Executives Have Donated Millions to Members of Congress
An investigation by The Appeal found that leading for-profit prison companies and their executives have donated millions to members of Congress, with the majority going to Republicans. This financial support coincides with Congress's expansion of immigration detention and increased funding for ICE, benefiting companies like GEO Group and CoreCivic, despite concerns about conditions in private detention facilities. The article highlights specific donations to Democratic representatives and the substantial political contributions made by company executives, suggesting a link between these donations and policies that fuel the private detention industry.
What Does GEO Group’s (GEO) Larger Credit Line Reveal About Its Liquidity Strategy?
The GEO Group, Inc. recently expanded its revolving credit facility from US$450 million to US$550 million, effective January 20, 2026. This move is expected to enhance the company's short-term funding access, improve working capital management, and support refinancing efforts. While the larger credit line offers more financial flexibility and eases liquidity concerns, it doesn't eliminate the company's core risks but could help manage interest coverage if operating conditions worsen.
What Does GEO Group’s (GEO) Larger Credit Line Reveal About Its Liquidity Strategy?
The GEO Group, Inc. has increased its revolving credit facility from US$450 million to US$550 million, effective January 20, 2026, enhancing its short-term funding access for managing working capital and refinancing. This move supports the company's ability to handle financial swings and maintain its buyback authorization without relying on less flexible funding, reinforcing its investment narrative amidst balance sheet complexities and regulatory exposure. While improving liquidity and financial flexibility, the credit line doesn't eliminate all risks, and investors are advised to consider interest coverage and debt costs.
Federated Hermes Inc. Grows Position in Geo Group Inc (The) $GEO
Federated Hermes Inc. significantly increased its stake in Geo Group Inc. (NYSE:GEO) by 1,273.1% in Q3 2025, now owning 293,151 shares valued at over $6 million. Institutional investors collectively hold 76.10% of the company. Geo Group has a "Moderate Buy" consensus rating from analysts with an average target price of $35.00, and recently beat Q4 earnings and revenue estimates.
What Does GEO Group’s (GEO) Larger Credit Line Reveal About Its Liquidity Strategy?
The GEO Group recently increased its revolving credit facility commitments from US$450 million to US$550 million, effective January 20, 2026. This move enhances the company's access to short-term funding for managing working capital, refinancing needs, and supporting its US$300 million buyback authorization. While the expanded credit line improves financial flexibility, it doesn't eliminate significant risks like interest coverage and debt costs, and the company's stock is still considered by some to be trading above fair value.
A Look At GEO Group (GEO) Valuation After Expanded Revolving Credit Facility Commitments
GEO Group (GEO) recently expanded its Revolving Credit Facility commitments from US$450 million to US$550 million, increasing its accessible liquidity. Despite recent share price declines, the company has seen significant longer-term shareholder returns. A popular narrative suggests GEO is currently undervalued by almost 50% at US$15.98, pointing to a fair value of US$32.25, driven by anticipated increases in federal funding for immigration enforcement and detention.
Y Intercept Hong Kong Ltd Purchases New Stake in Geo Group Inc (The) $GEO
Y Intercept Hong Kong Ltd recently acquired a new stake of 62,593 shares in Geo Group Inc (NYSE:GEO) during Q3, valued at approximately $1.28 million, contributing to institutional ownership of nearly 76.1%. Analysts maintain a "Moderate Buy" consensus with a $35 target price, despite Jones Trading cutting its target from $50 to $37. Geo Group reported strong Q3 results, beating EPS estimates and showing a 13.1% revenue increase, with management guiding FY2025 EPS between $1.81 and $1.85.
Teacher Retirement System of Texas Cuts Stock Holdings in Geo Group Inc (The) $GEO
The Teacher Retirement System of Texas significantly reduced its stake in Geo Group Inc (GEO) by 35.8% in Q3, selling over 100,000 shares. Despite this reduction, institutional investors collectively own approximately 76.1% of the stock. Analyst sentiment remains positive, with an average "Moderate Buy" rating and a price target of $35.00, considerably higher than the current share price.
Analysts Are Bullish on Top Industrial Goods Stocks: Geo Group (GEO), Landstar System (LSTR)
This article highlights bullish sentiments from financial analysts on several industrial goods stocks, including Geo Group (GEO), Landstar System (LSTR), and United Airlines Holdings (UAL). Analysts from Noble Financial, Wells Fargo, and Jefferies have maintained Buy ratings for these companies, citing various price targets and expressing optimism about their potential performance. The report includes details on individual analyst ratings, target prices, and overall consensus for each stock.
Geo Group Upsizes Revolving Credit Facility for Flexibility
Geo Group (GEO) has increased its revolving credit facility by $100 million, bringing the total to $550 million. This move aims to boost financial flexibility, support future growth plans, and signals stronger backing from its banking partners. While a recent analyst rating suggests a "Buy" with a $35.00 price target, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, Spark, rates GEO as "Neutral" due to strong strategic progress balanced against liquidity concerns and mixed technical indicators.
Geo Group Inc Enters Third Amendment To Credit Agreement
Geo Group Inc. has entered into a Third Amendment to its Credit Agreement. This brief news item from Refinitiv, distributed via Reuters, indicates a modification to the company's existing credit terms. Further details regarding the nature of the amendment are not provided in this short update.
Detainees, LA nonprofit file suit alleging inhumane conditions in Adelanto ICE detention center
A class action lawsuit has been filed against federal officials and agencies, alleging inhumane conditions at the Adelanto ICE Processing Center. Detainees claim they are subjected to moldy towels, medical neglect, insufficient food, and unclean drinking water, which they argue violates their constitutional right to due process. The lawsuit was filed by four detainees and the Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights, seeking to improve medical care, sanitation, end solitary confinement, and establish independent oversight.
Does GEO Group’s (GEO) Bigger Credit Line and ICE Contract Redefine Its Risk Reward Profile?
GEO Group has increased its revolving credit facility to $550 million and secured a new ICE skip tracing contract, enhancing its financial flexibility and federal outsourcing role. While these developments provide some near-term catalysts, they also reinforce the company's reliance on debt and expose it further to political risks associated with government contracts. The stock is considered inexpensive by some metrics, but its complex investment narrative involves balancing potential undervaluation with a heavy debt load and political exposure.
Does GEO Group’s (GEO) Bigger Credit Line and ICE Contract Redefine Its Risk Reward Profile?
GEO Group has increased its revolving credit facility to US$550 million and secured a new U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) contract, signaling expanded financial flexibility and deeper involvement in federal outsourcing. While these developments may support revenue, they also consolidate the company's reliance on debt and expose it to political risk and a highly scrutinized government customer base. Investors need to weigh these factors, including the stock's potential undervaluation against its complex risk profile.
GEO Group (GEO) Valuation Check As Expanded Credit Facility Signals Stronger Lender Confidence
GEO Group recently increased its revolving credit facility to US$550 million, signaling stronger lender confidence and greater financial flexibility. Despite a significant one-year decline, the stock shows short-term momentum and is considered undervalued at $18.57, with a narrative fair value of $32.25. This valuation is supported by debt reduction, refinancing, asset sales, and a new share repurchase program, though it does depend on sustained ICE funding and detention demand.
The GEO Group Announces Expansion of Revolving Credit Facility by $100 Million | The GEO Group, Inc.
The GEO Group, Inc. announced the closing of an amendment to its Amended Credit Agreement, increasing its Revolving Credit Facility commitments from $450 million to $550 million, effective January 20, 2026. Executive Chairman George C. Zoley stated that this expansion provides enhanced balance sheet flexibility for future growth and long-term shareholder value creation, including through an expanded stock repurchase authorization. The company also highlighted continued support from its banking partners.
GEO Group expands revolving credit facility by $100M
GEO Group has announced an expansion of its revolving credit facility by an additional $100 million. This move is expected to provide the company with increased financial flexibility and liquidity. The expanded facility will support GEO Group's operational needs and strategic initiatives going forward.
The GEO Group Announces Expansion of Revolving Credit Facility by $100 Million
The GEO Group, Inc. has announced the expansion of its Revolving Credit Facility by $100 million, increasing commitments from $450 million to $550 million. This amendment, effective January 20, 2026, enhances the company's financial flexibility and supports future growth needs and shareholder value creation, including an expanded stock repurchase authorization. The move reflects continued support from its banking partners.
The GEO Group Announces Expansion of Revolving Credit Facility by $100 Million
The GEO Group, Inc. announced an amendment to its credit agreement, expanding its Revolving Credit Facility commitments from $450 million to $550 million, effective January 20, 2026. Executive Chairman George C. Zoley stated that this expansion provides enhanced balance sheet flexibility for future growth and long-term shareholder value creation. The company, a leading government service provider, expects this move to support its operations across secure facilities and community reentry centers.
The GEO Group Announces Date for Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Release and Conference Call
The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE:GEO) announced it will release its fourth quarter 2025 financial results on Thursday, February 12, 2026, before market open. A conference call and webcast will follow at 1:00 PM Eastern Time on the same day, featuring company executives George Zoley, J. David Donahue, and Mark Suchinski. Details for participation and replay information for the call and webcast were provided.
The GEO Group Announces Date for Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Release and Conference Call
The GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) announced its fourth quarter 2025 financial results will be released on Thursday, February 12, 2026, before the market opens. A conference call and webcast will be held on the same day at 1:00 PM Eastern Time, hosted by key executives. Details for participation and a replay are provided.
The GEO Group Announces Date for Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Release and Conference Call
The GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) announced it will release its fourth quarter 2025 financial results on Thursday, February 12, 2026, before the market opens. A conference call and simultaneous webcast are scheduled for the same day at 1:00 PM Eastern Time. The call will be hosted by George Zoley, J. David Donahue, and Mark Suchinski, with details provided for participation and webcast access.
Geo Group's BI secures two-year ISAP contract from ICE
The Geo Group's subsidiary, BI, has been awarded a two-year contract by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) for the Intensive Supervision Appearance Program (ISAP). This contract, valued at up to $427 million, represents a significant renewal and expansion for BI's services. The ISAP program provides supervision and case management services for migrants residing in the U.S. as they await immigration proceedings.
ICE Hires Immigrant Bounty Hunters From Private Prison Company GEO Group
ICE has hired BI Incorporated, a subsidiary of the private prison company GEO Group, to conduct "skip tracing" investigations using private bounty hunters to locate immigrants for cash bonuses. This troubling development, which could see the contract balloon to $121 million by 2027, raises concerns about the exploitation of vulnerable populations and the potential for abuse, as GEO Group profits from both tracking and imprisoning immigrants. Critics highlight GEO's history of mistreatment and the dangers of allowing private actors operating in secrecy to track individuals using tools like Google Maps.
