* Note: Prices are in Million (M) USD.
Description:
The GEO Group (NYSE: GEO) is the first fully integrated capital real estate investment trust specializing in the design, financing, development and operation of secure facilities, processing centers and community re-entry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom.
These criteria used Company's Cash, EBITDA and Debt balance to determines its fair value:
Cash : $77 M
Debt : $1,812 M
EBITDA : $414 M
Net Debt (Debt - Cash): $1,735 M
Since EBITDA cannot cover net debt within 3 years, Avoid This Stock.
This criteria used industry in which company operates:
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Security & Protection Services
Based on industry, 3 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Price To Earning (P/E) Ratio to determines its fair value:
Forward PE Ratio: 23.51
Since Forward PE Ratio is between 20 - 25, 2 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to convert Sales into free cash flow to determine fair value:
Average Free Cash Flow: $89 M
Average Revenue: $1,759 M
Revenue Converted To Free Cash Flow (%): 5%
Avg Free Cash Flow Growth Per Year (Last 5 Years): -1.72%
Since Free Cash Flow (FCF) to Revenue percentage is less than 15, 1 point assigned.
This criteria used company's growth potential to calculate its fair value:
Latest Revenue (2024-12-31): $2,424 M
Revenue 4 Years Ago (2020-12-31): $2,350 M
Last 5 Years Average Revenue Growth: 1%
Since Revenue Growth is between 0 - 5, 1 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to buy back its own share:
Latest Share Count (2024-12-31): $139 M
Share Count 5 Years Ago (2020-12-31): $120 M
Company is not buying back its own shares, 0 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's dividend payout ratio to determine its fair value:
Next Year Earnings Per Share (EPS): $1.13
Trailing 12-Month Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.65
Average Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.89
Dividend Per Share (DPS): $0
Payout Ratio: 0%
Dividend Yield: 0%
Since Dividend Per Share is less than or equal to 0, 0 point assigned.
Since Dividend Yield is less than 1, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's Return On Equity (ROE%) to determine its fair value:
Average ROE: 11%
Since Average ROE is between 10 - 20, 3 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's current price to its 52 week low price to determines its fair value:
Current Price: $21
52-Week Low: $12
Threshold Price (15% Above 52-Week Low): $14
Since Current price is not within 15% threshold, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's Market Cap to determines its fair value:
Market Capitalization: $2,974 M
Since Market Cap is less than 10B, 1 point assigned.
% Exposure to Total Portfolio
Based on the market cap, we recommend do not exceed 2% exposure of Total Portfolio.
Value-Trade has assigned 11 points to above Geo Group Inc (GEO) stock.
Last 18 Years Avg PE (Limited to last 18 years of EPS data) 20.89, Fair Value PE 12, Industry Based PE is 20 and Growth based PE is 8. Based on these all values average assigned is 15.22.
Value-Trades has assined P/E value 15.22. Since an average (Current Year EPS + Next Year EPS) earning per share is $0.89.
The fair value of Geo Group Inc (GEO) stock should be (15.22 x $0.89) = $13.55
