* Note: Prices are in Million (M) USD.
Description:
Xponential Fitness Inc. (XPOF) is a prominent leader in the boutique fitness franchise industry, boasting a robust portfolio of well-known brands such as Club Pilates, CycleBar, and StretchLab. The company's community-focused model delivers tailored fitness experiences, aligning with the increasing consumer demand in the health and wellness sector. Xponential's strategic franchise framework not only enhances scalability but also positions it favorably to capitalize on evolving market trends. With a dedication to quality and innovation, Xponential Fitness offers compelling investment prospects for institutional investors seeking to engage in the dynamic fitness landscape.
These criteria used Company's Cash, EBITDA and Debt balance to determines its fair value:
Cash : $21 M
Debt : $510 M
EBITDA : $13 M
Net Debt (Debt - Cash): $488 M
Since EBITDA cannot cover net debt within 3 years, Avoid This Stock.
This criteria used industry in which company operates:
Sector: Consumer discretionary
Industry: Leisure
Based on industry, 3 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Price To Earning (P/E) Ratio to determines its fair value:
Message: Cannot calculate PE Ratio since EPS is either 0 or negative.
Using default values for calculation.
Forward PE Ratio (using default values): 20.00
Since Forward PE Ratio is between 20 - 25, 2 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to convert Sales into free cash flow to determine fair value:
Using last 8 overlapping fiscal years (max 20).Average Free Cash Flow: $10 M
Average Revenue: $206 M
Revenue Converted To Free Cash Flow (%): 5.0%
Since Free Cash Flow (FCF) to Revenue percentage is less than 15, 1 point assigned.
This criteria used company's growth potential to calculate its fair value:
Latest Revenue (2025-12-31): $315 M
Revenue 5 Years Ago (2020-12-31): $107 M
Total Growth over 5 Years: 195.4%
5-Year Revenue CAGR (Historical): 24.2%
Forward 5-Year CAGR (Tapered): 16.9%
Since historical Revenue CAGR is greater than 20, 5 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to buy back its own share:
Latest Share Count (2025-12-31): $35 M
Share Count 5 Years Ago (2021-12-31): $24 M
Company is not buying back its own shares, 0 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's dividend payout ratio to determine its fair value:
Next Year Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.00
Trailing 12-Month Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.00
Average Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.00
Dividend Per Share (DPS): $0
Payout Ratio: 0%
Dividend Yield: 0.00%
Since Dividend Per Share is less than or equal to 0, 0 point assigned.
Since Dividend Yield is less than 1, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's Return On Equity (ROE%) to determine its fair value:
Using last 3 valid ROE years (max 20).Average ROE: -164.9%
Since Average ROE is non-positive, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's current price to its 52 week low price to determines its fair value:
Current Price: $6.91
52-Week Low: $3.83
Threshold Price (15% Above 52-Week Low): $4.40
Since Current price is not within 15% threshold, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's Market Cap to determines its fair value:
Market Capitalization: $318 M
Since Market Cap is less than 10B, 1 point assigned.
% Exposure to Total Portfolio
Based on the market cap, we recommend do not exceed 0.5% exposure of Total Portfolio.
Warren Buffett's Owners' Earnings:
Owners' Earnings (FCF/Share, latest positive annual) (2025-12-31): $0.71
Note: Many fast-growing companies reinvest heavily, so Owners' Earnings may appear low.
Consider other factors in your valuation.
Value-Trade has assigned 12 points to above Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF) stock.
Fair Value PE 12, Industry Based PE 20, Growth Based PE 16.93, RCFC Based PE 5.05, Risk-Free Anchored PE (25% MoS) 16.74. Based on these 5 values, average assigned is 14.14. The fair value of Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF) stock cannot be calculated since EBITDA and EPS are either 0 or negative.
