* Note: Prices are in Million (M) USD.
Description:
Vistra Corp. The company is headquartered in Irving, Texas.
These criteria used Company's Cash, EBITDA and Debt balance to determines its fair value:
Cash : $0 M
Debt : $0 M
EBITDA : $6,633 M
Since Cash is greater than Total Debt, 5 points assigned.
This criteria used industry in which company operates:
Sector: Utilities
Industry: Utilities - independent power producers
Based on industry, 3 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Price To Earning (P/E) Ratio to determines its fair value:
Forward PE Ratio: 25.71
Since Forward PE Ratio is between 25 - 35, 1 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to convert Sales into free cash flow to determine fair value:
Using last 20 overlapping fiscal years (max 20).Average Free Cash Flow: $619 M
Average Revenue: $9,494 M
Revenue Converted To Free Cash Flow (%): 6.5%
Since Free Cash Flow (FCF) to Revenue percentage is less than 15, 1 point assigned.
This criteria used company's growth potential to calculate its fair value:
Latest Revenue (2024-12-31): $19,377 M
Revenue 4 Years Ago (2020-12-31): $11,062 M
Last 5 Years Average Revenue Growth: 15%
Since Revenue Growth is between 15 - 20, 4 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to buy back its own share:
Latest Share Count (2024-12-31): $353 M
Share Count 5 Years Ago (2020-12-31): $491 M
Company is buying back its own shares, 3 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's dividend payout ratio to determine its fair value:
Next Year Earnings Per Share (EPS): $8.06
Trailing 12-Month Earnings Per Share (EPS): $7.24
Average Earnings Per Share (EPS): $7.65
Dividend Per Share (DPS): $1
Payout Ratio: 12%
Dividend Yield: 0%
Since company Payout Ratio is less than 50, 2 points assigned.
Since Dividend Yield is less than 1, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's Return On Equity (ROE%) to determine its fair value:
Using last 12 valid ROE years (max 20).Average ROE: 38.6%
Since Average ROE is greater than 20, 5 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's current price to its 52 week low price to determines its fair value:
Current Price: $197
52-Week Low: $72
Threshold Price (15% Above 52-Week Low): $83
Since Current price is not within 15% threshold, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's Market Cap to determines its fair value:
Market Capitalization: $68,586 M
Since Market Cap is between 10B - 100B, 2 points assigned.
% Exposure to Total Portfolio
Based on the market cap, we recommend do not exceed 3% exposure of Total Portfolio.
Value-Trade has assigned 26 points to above Vistra Energy Corp (VST) stock.
Heads up: One or more P/E inputs look exaggerated and may skew the blend.
• ROE Based PE
40.91 (>2× median)
Further research is recommended; please use your own due diligence.In such cases, multiplying earnings by the long-run average P/E typically gives a closer, more reliable fair value.
Rule of thumb: Last 5 Years Avg P/E (16.36)
× EPS ($7.65) = $125.15.
Last 5 Years Avg PE 16.36, Fair Value PE 15, Industry Based PE 12, Growth Based PE 15, RCFC Based PE 15.21, ROE Based PE 40.91, Risk-Free Anchored PE (25% MoS) 17.08. Based on these 7 values, average assigned is 18.79. Value-Trades has assined P/E value 18.79. Since an average (Current Year EPS + Next Year EPS) earning per share is $7.65.
The fair value of Vistra Energy Corp (VST) stock should be (18.79 x $7.65) = $143.78.
