* Note: Prices are in Million (M) USD.
Description:
Velocity Financial, Inc. is a real estate finance company in the United States. The company is headquartered in Westlake Village, California.
These criteria used Company's Cash, EBITDA and Debt balance to determines its fair value:
Cash : $80 M
Debt : $5,709 M
EBITDA : $356 M
Net Debt (Debt - Cash): $5,630 M
Since EBITDA cannot cover net debt within 3 years, Avoid This Stock.
This criteria used industry in which company operates:
Sector: Financials
Industry: Mortgage finance
Based on industry, 3 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Price To Earning (P/E) Ratio to determines its fair value:
Message: Cannot calculate PE Ratio since EPS is either 0 or negative.
Using default values for calculation.
Forward PE Ratio (using default values): 20.00
Since Forward PE Ratio is between 20 - 25, 2 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to convert Sales into free cash flow to determine fair value:
Using last 9 overlapping fiscal years (max 20).Average Free Cash Flow: $14 M
Average Revenue: $165 M
Revenue Converted To Free Cash Flow (%): 8.6%
Since Free Cash Flow (FCF) to Revenue percentage is less than 15, 1 point assigned.
This criteria used company's growth potential to calculate its fair value:
Latest Revenue (2024-12-31): $451 M
Revenue 5 Years Ago (2019-12-31): $54 M
Total Growth over 5 Years: 731.2%
5-Year Revenue CAGR (Historical): 52.7%
Forward 5-Year CAGR (Tapered): 26.4%
Since historical Revenue CAGR is greater than 20, 5 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to buy back its own share:
Latest Share Count (2024-12-31): $36 M
Share Count 5 Years Ago (2020-12-31): $20 M
Company is not buying back its own shares, 0 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's dividend payout ratio to determine its fair value:
Message: Cannot calculate payout ratio because EPS is either 0 or negative.
Using default values for calculation.
Based on default values, 1 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Return On Equity (ROE%) to determine its fair value:
Using last 11 valid ROE years (max 20).Average ROE: 7.2%
Since Average ROE is less than 10, 1 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's current price to its 52 week low price to determines its fair value:
Current Price: $18
52-Week Low: $16
Threshold Price (15% Above 52-Week Low): $19
Since Current price is within 15% threshold, 5 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Market Cap to determines its fair value:
Market Capitalization: $727 M
Since Market Cap is less than 10B, 1 point assigned.
% Exposure to Total Portfolio
Based on the market cap, we recommend do not exceed 1% exposure of Total Portfolio.
Warren Buffett's Owners' Earnings:
Owners' Earnings (FCF/Share) (TTM ending 2025-06-30): $0.74
Owners' Earnings (FCF/Share, latest positive annual) (2024-12-31): $1.05
Note: Many fast-growing companies reinvest heavily, so Owners' Earnings may appear low.
Consider other factors in your valuation.
Value-Trade has assigned 19 points to above Velocity Financial Llc (VEL) stock.
Heads up: One or more P/E inputs look exaggerated and may skew the blend.
• Growth Based PE 50.00 (>2× median)
Further research is recommended; please use your own due diligence.
In such cases, multiplying earnings by the long-run average P/E typically gives a closer, more reliable fair value.
Last 5 Years Avg PE 10.16, Fair Value PE 12, Industry Based PE 13, Growth Based PE 50, RCFC Based PE 8.57, ROE Based PE 7.17, Risk-Free Anchored PE (25% MoS) 17.61. Based on these 7 values, average assigned is 16.93. The fair value of Velocity Financial Llc (VEL) stock cannot be calculated since EBITDA and EPS are either 0 or negative.
