* Note: Prices are in Million (M) USD.
Description:
Upstream Bio, Inc. is a clinical-stage biotechnology firm based in Waltham, Massachusetts, dedicated to the advancement of innovative therapies for inflammatory diseases, with a particular emphasis on severe respiratory disorders. The company leverages cutting-edge research and development to address unmet medical needs in this specialty area. With a robust pipeline of therapeutic candidates, Upstream Bio is poised to make significant contributions to the treatment landscape for patients struggling with complex inflammatory conditions.
These criteria used Company's Cash, EBITDA and Debt balance to determines its fair value:
Cash : $45 M
Debt : $1 M
EBITDA : $-121 M
Since Ebitda is less than 0, 0 points assigned.
This criteria used industry in which company operates:
Sector: Health care
Industry: Biotechnology
Biotechnology detected → treating as non-Technology. 3 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Price To Earning (P/E) Ratio to determines its fair value:
Message: Cannot calculate PE Ratio since EPS is either 0 or negative.
Using default values for calculation.
Forward PE Ratio (using default values): 20.00
Since Forward PE Ratio is between 20 - 25, 2 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to convert Sales into free cash flow to determine fair value:
Using last 3 overlapping fiscal years (max 20).Average Free Cash Flow: $-39 M
Average Revenue: $2 M
Revenue Converted To Free Cash Flow (%): -1,960.0%
Since Free Cash Flow (FCF) to Revenue percentage is non-positive, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used company's growth potential to calculate its fair value:
Latest Revenue (2024-12-31): $2 M
Revenue 2 Years Ago (2022-12-31): $1 M
Total Growth over 2 Years: 95.5%
2-Year Revenue CAGR (Historical): 39.8%
Forward 5-Year CAGR (Tapered): 19.9%
Since historical Revenue CAGR is greater than 20, 5 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to buy back its own share:
Error: This stock does not have 5 years of share count data.Using default values for calculation.
Based on default values, 0 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's dividend payout ratio to determine its fair value:
Next Year Earnings Per Share (EPS): $-2.95
Trailing 12-Month Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.00
Average Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.00
Dividend Per Share (DPS): $0
Payout Ratio: 0%
Dividend Yield: 0%
⚠️ Caution: Negative earnings detected — Further research is recommended - Next Fiscal Yr EPS: $-2.95
Since Dividend Per Share is less than or equal to 0, 0 point assigned.
Since Dividend Yield is less than 1, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's Return On Equity (ROE%) to determine its fair value:
Insufficient valid ROE years (found 1; need ≥ 3). Dropping ROE-based PE.
This criteria used Company's current price to its 52 week low price to determines its fair value:
Current Price: $18.24
52-Week Low: $5.14
Threshold Price (15% Above 52-Week Low): $5.91
Since Current price is not within 15% threshold, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's Market Cap to determines its fair value:
Market Capitalization: $1,023 M
Since Market Cap is less than 10B, 1 point assigned.
% Exposure to Total Portfolio
Based on the market cap, we recommend do not exceed 2% exposure of Total Portfolio.
Warren Buffett's Owners' Earnings:
No positive free cash flow found (TTM or annual) to compute Owners' Earnings per share.
Note: Many fast-growing companies reinvest heavily, so Owners' Earnings may appear low.
Consider other factors in your valuation.
Value-Trade has assigned 11 points to above Upstream Bio, Inc. (UPB) stock.
Fair Value PE 12, Industry Based PE 15, Growth Based PE 19.92, Risk-Free Anchored PE (25% MoS) 18.2. Based on these 4 values, average assigned is 16.28. The fair value of Upstream Bio, Inc. (UPB) stock cannot be calculated since EBITDA and EPS are either 0 or negative.
