* Note: Prices are in Million (M) USD.
Description:
Suburban Propane Partners, LP (SPH) is a leading provider of propane distribution and related services, with a strong focus on the marketing and retail delivery of propane, fuel oil, and refined fuels. Headquartered in Whippany, New Jersey, the company operates a comprehensive network of locations across the United States, catering to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. With a commitment to safety and sustainability, Suburban Propane leverages its extensive infrastructure and customer service expertise to deliver reliable energy solutions while adapting to the evolving needs of the energy landscape.
These criteria used Company's Cash, EBITDA and Debt balance to determines its fair value:
Cash : $5 M
Debt : $1,260 M
EBITDA : $246 M
Net Debt (Debt - Cash): $1,256 M
Since EBITDA cannot cover net debt within 3 years, Avoid This Stock.
This criteria used industry in which company operates:
Sector: Utilities
Industry: Utilities - regulated gas
Based on industry, 3 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Price To Earning (P/E) Ratio to determines its fair value:
Forward PE Ratio: 9.15
Since Forward PE Ratio is less than 15, 5 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to convert Sales into free cash flow to determine fair value:
Error: Invalid cash flow data provided.Using default values for calculation.
Based on default values, 1 points assigned.
This criteria used company's growth potential to calculate its fair value:
Latest Revenue (2024-09-30): $1,327 M
Revenue 5 Years Ago (2019-09-30): $1,268 M
Total Growth over 5 Years: 4.7%
5-Year Revenue CAGR (Historical): 0.9%
Forward 5-Year CAGR (Tapered): 0.8%
Since historical Revenue CAGR is between 0 - 5, 1 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to buy back its own share:
Latest Share Count (2024-09-30): $65 M
Share Count 5 Years Ago (2020-09-30): $63 M
Company is not buying back its own shares, 0 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's dividend payout ratio to determine its fair value:
Next Year Earnings Per Share (EPS): $2.05
Trailing 12-Month Earnings Per Share (EPS): $2.00
Average Earnings Per Share (EPS): $2.03
Dividend Per Share (DPS): $1
Payout Ratio: 64%
Dividend Yield: 6.86%
Since company Payout Ratio is greater than 50, 1 point assigned.
Since Dividend Yield is greater than 5, 5 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Return On Equity (ROE%) to determine its fair value:
Using last 7 valid ROE years (max 20).Average ROE: 29.8%
Since Average ROE is greater than 20, 5 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's current price to its 52 week low price to determines its fair value:
Current Price: $18.52
52-Week Low: $16.12
Threshold Price (15% Above 52-Week Low): $18.54
Since Current price is within 15% threshold, 5 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Market Cap to determines its fair value:
Market Capitalization: $1,245 M
Since Market Cap is less than 10B, 1 point assigned.
% Exposure to Total Portfolio
Based on the market cap, we recommend do not exceed 2% exposure of Total Portfolio.
Warren Buffett's Owners' Earnings:
No positive free cash flow found (TTM or annual) to compute Owners' Earnings per share.
Note: Many fast-growing companies reinvest heavily, so Owners' Earnings may appear low.
Consider other factors in your valuation.
Value-Trade has assigned 27 points to above Suburban Propane Partners LP (SPH) stock.
Fair Value PE
15, Industry Based PE
15, ROE Based PE
29.79, Risk-Free Anchored PE (25% MoS)
18.2. Based on these 4 values, average assigned is
19.50. Value-Trades has assined P/E value
19.50. An average (Current Year EPS + Next Year EPS) earning per share is
$2.025.
Fair value using multiple P/Es (blended): $39.48 (PE 19.50 × EPS $2.03)
So the Final Fair Value is: $39.48
Understanding the Value-Trades P/E Blend (click to expand)
▾
What goes into the blended P/E?
- 20-Year Avg P/E — Long-run market baseline; conservative anchor.
- Fair Value P/E — Score-based (cash, debt, sector, etc.).
- Industry P/E — Peer group norm.
- Growth-Based P/E — Uses tapered growth rates, floored at 15.
- RCFC-Based P/E — Maps cash conversion efficiency.
- ROE-Based P/E — Higher ROE supports higher multiples.
- Risk-Free Anchored P/E — Macro floor tied to 10y yield w/ MoS.
How it works
- Extreme values are clamped/filtered (IQR method).
- Anchors (20y avg, RCFC/ROE, risk-free) are always kept if valid.
- Final fair value = min(Blended PE × EPS, Avg PE × EPS).
P/E Reference Summary
Using EPS: $2.03
| Source |
P/E Ratio |
Implied Fair Value |
| Value-Trades Assigned | 19.5 | $39.49 |
