* Note: Prices are in Million (M) USD.
Description:
Simon Property Group, Inc. is a real estate investment trust that invests in shopping malls, outlet centers, and community/lifestyle centers. It is the largest owner of shopping malls in the United States and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.
These criteria used Company's Cash, EBITDA and Debt balance to determines its fair value:
Cash : $1,231 M
Debt : $25,917 M
EBITDA : $4,582 M
Net Debt (Debt - Cash): $24,686 M
Since EBITDA cannot cover net debt within 3 years, Avoid This Stock.
This criteria used industry in which company operates:
Sector: Real estate
Industry: Reit - retail
Based on industry, 3 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Price To Earning (P/E) Ratio to determines its fair value:
Forward PE Ratio: 14.03
Since Forward PE Ratio is less than 15, 5 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to convert Sales into free cash flow to determine fair value:
Using last 20 overlapping fiscal years (max 20).Average Free Cash Flow: $1,982 M
Average Revenue: $4,696 M
Revenue Converted To Free Cash Flow (%): 42.2%
Since Free Cash Flow (FCF) to Revenue percentage is greater than 25, 5 points assigned.
This criteria used company's growth potential to calculate its fair value:
Latest Revenue (2024-12-31): $5,964 M
Revenue 4 Years Ago (2020-12-31): $4,608 M
Last 5 Years Average Revenue Growth: 6%
Since Revenue Growth is between 5 - 10, 2 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to buy back its own share:
Latest Share Count (2024-12-31): $326 M
Share Count 5 Years Ago (2020-12-31): $309 M
Company is not buying back its own shares, 0 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's dividend payout ratio to determine its fair value:
Next Year Earnings Per Share (EPS): $13.15
Trailing 12-Month Earnings Per Share (EPS): $12.42
Average Earnings Per Share (EPS): $12.79
Dividend Per Share (DPS): $8
Payout Ratio: 65%
Dividend Yield: 5%
Since company Payout Ratio is greater than 50, 1 point assigned.
Since Dividend Yield is greater than 4, 4 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Return On Equity (ROE%) to determine its fair value:
Using last 20 valid ROE years (max 20).Average ROE: 40.1%
Since Average ROE is greater than 20, 5 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's current price to its 52 week low price to determines its fair value:
Current Price: $179
52-Week Low: $135
Threshold Price (15% Above 52-Week Low): $155
Since Current price is not within 15% threshold, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's Market Cap to determines its fair value:
Market Capitalization: $63,194 M
Since Market Cap is between 10B - 100B, 2 points assigned.
% Exposure to Total Portfolio
Based on the market cap, we recommend do not exceed 3% exposure of Total Portfolio.
Value-Trade has assigned 27 points to above Simon Property Group Inc (SPG) stock.
Heads up: One or more P/E inputs look exaggerated and may skew the blend.
• RCFC Based PE
43.76 (>2× median)
• ROE Based PE
42.12 (>2× median)
Further research is recommended; please use your own due diligence.In such cases, multiplying earnings by the long-run average P/E typically gives a closer, more reliable fair value.
Rule of thumb: Last 18 Years Avg P/E (30.68)
× EPS ($12.79) = $392.24.
Last 18 Years Avg PE 30.68, Fair Value PE 15, Industry Based PE 20, Growth Based PE 5, RCFC Based PE 43.76, ROE Based PE 42.12, Risk-Free Anchored PE (25% MoS) 17.08. Based on these 7 values, average assigned is 24.81. Value-Trades has assined P/E value 24.81. Since an average (Current Year EPS + Next Year EPS) earning per share is $12.785.
The fair value of Simon Property Group Inc (SPG) stock should be (24.81 x $12.785) = $317.15.
