* Note: Prices are in Million (M) USD.
Description:
These criteria used Company's Cash, EBITDA and Debt balance to determines its fair value:
Cash : $35,562 M
Debt : $49,215 M
EBITDA : $45 M
Net Debt (Debt - Cash): $13,653 M
Since EBITDA cannot cover net debt within 3 years, Avoid This Stock.
This criteria used industry in which company operates:
Sector: Financials
Industry: Reit - mortgage
Based on industry, 3 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Price To Earning (P/E) Ratio to determines its fair value:
Forward PE Ratio: 7.70
Since Forward PE Ratio is less than 15, 5 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to convert Sales into free cash flow to determine fair value:
Using last 4 overlapping fiscal years (max 20).Average Free Cash Flow: $15 M
Average Revenue: $2,810 M
Revenue Converted To Free Cash Flow (%): 0.5%
Since Free Cash Flow (FCF) to Revenue percentage is less than 15, 1 point assigned.
This criteria used company's growth potential to calculate its fair value:
Latest Revenue (2024-12-31): $55 M
Revenue 3 Years Ago (2021-12-31): $11,075 M
Total Growth over 3 Years: -99.5%
3-Year Revenue CAGR (Historical): -83.0%
Forward 5-Year CAGR (Tapered): -74.7%
Since historical Revenue CAGR is between 0 - 5, 1 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to buy back its own share:
Error: This stock does not have 5 years of share count data.Using default values for calculation.
Based on default values, 0 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's dividend payout ratio to determine its fair value:
Next Year Earnings Per Share (EPS): $1.73
Trailing 12-Month Earnings Per Share (EPS): $1.74
Average Earnings Per Share (EPS): $1.74
Dividend Per Share (DPS): $2
Payout Ratio: 108%
Dividend Yield: 13%
Since company Payout Ratio is greater than 50, 1 point assigned.
Since Dividend Yield is greater than 5, 5 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Return On Equity (ROE%) to determine its fair value:
Using last 4 valid ROE years (max 20).Average ROE: 908.6%
Since Average ROE is greater than 20, 5 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's current price to its 52 week low price to determines its fair value:
Current Price: $13
52-Week Low: $12
Threshold Price (15% Above 52-Week Low): $14
Since Current price is within 15% threshold, 5 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Market Cap to determines its fair value:
Market Capitalization: $301 M
Since Market Cap is less than 10B, 1 point assigned.
% Exposure to Total Portfolio
Based the market cap, we recommend do not exceed 0.5% exposure of Total Portfolio.
Warren Buffet's Owners' Earnings:
No positive free cash flow year found to compute Owners' Earnings per share.
Note: Many highly growing companies reinvest heavily back into the business,
so their Owners' Earnings may appear very low. In such cases, other criteria should
be considered to assess the company’s true worth.
Value-Trade has assigned 27 points to above Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc (REFI) stock.
Heads up: One or more P/E inputs look exaggerated and may skew the blend.
• ROE Based PE
50.00 (>2× median)
Further research is recommended; please use your own due diligence.In such cases, multiplying earnings by the long-run average P/E typically gives a closer, more reliable fair value.
Rule of thumb: Last 3 Years Avg P/E (8.04)
× EPS ($1.74) = $13.99.
Last 3 Years Avg PE
8.04, Fair Value PE
15, Industry Based PE
15, RCFC Based PE
0.55, ROE Based PE
50, Risk-Free Anchored PE (25% MoS)
17.61. Based on these 6 values (after removing statistical outliers, n=5), average assigned is
19.63. Value-Trades has assined P/E value
8.04. An average (Current Year EPS + Next Year EPS) earning per share is
$1.74.
Note: Final fair value is the lesser of the blended PE-based fair value and the simple average PE × EPS fair value.Fair value using multiple P/Es (blended): $34.16 (PE 19.63 × EPS $1.74)
Fair value using simple average PE × EPS: $13.99 (PE 8.04 × EPS $1.74)
Lesser of these two: $13.99
So the Final Fair Value is: $13.99
Understanding the Value-Trades P/E Blend (click to expand)
▾
What goes into the blended P/E?
- 20-Year Avg P/E — Long-run market baseline; conservative anchor.
- Fair Value P/E — Score-based (cash, debt, sector, etc.).
- Industry P/E — Peer group norm.
- Growth-Based P/E — Uses tapered growth rates, floored at 15.
- RCFC-Based P/E — Maps cash conversion efficiency.
- ROE-Based P/E — Higher ROE supports higher multiples.
- Risk-Free Anchored P/E — Macro floor tied to 10y yield w/ MoS.
How it works
- Extreme values are clamped/filtered (IQR method).
- Anchors (20y avg, RCFC/ROE, risk-free) are always kept if valid.
- Final fair value = min(Blended PE × EPS, Avg PE × EPS).
P/E Reference Summary
Using EPS: $1.74
| Source |
P/E Ratio |
Implied Fair Value |
| Market (1 Yr Ago) | 8.2 | $14.27 |
| 3 Yrs Avg-PE | 8.04 | $13.99 |
| Value-Trades Assigned | 8.04 | $13.99 |
Note: Only 3 years of reliable P/E data available. Fair value is calculated using blended models to reduce bias.
