* Note: Prices are in Million (M) USD.
Description:
Olin Corporation is a premier global manufacturer and distributor of chemical products, headquartered in Clayton, Missouri, with a significant operational presence in the Americas and Europe. The company specializes in chloralkali products, epoxy resins, and ammunition, serving a wide array of industries such as construction, automotive, and defense. Olin's dedication to innovation and sustainability differentiates it in the chemical sector, positioning it to respond effectively to market dynamics and regulatory requirements. By pursuing strategic expansions and enhancing operational efficiencies, Olin is committed to creating long-term shareholder value and reinforcing its competitive edge.
These criteria used Company's Cash, EBITDA and Debt balance to determines its fair value:
Cash : $224 M
Debt : $3,058 M
EBITDA : $428 M
Net Debt (Debt - Cash): $2,834 M
Since EBITDA cannot cover net debt within 3 years, Avoid This Stock.
This criteria used industry in which company operates:
Sector: Basic materials
Industry: Specialty chemicals
Based on industry, 3 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Price To Earning (P/E) Ratio to determines its fair value:
Forward PE Ratio: 28.03
Since Forward PE Ratio is between 25 - 35, 1 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to convert Sales into free cash flow to determine fair value:
Using last 20 overlapping fiscal years (max 20).Average Free Cash Flow: $330 M
Average Revenue: $4,286 M
Revenue Converted To Free Cash Flow (%): 7.7%
Since Free Cash Flow (FCF) to Revenue percentage is less than 15, 1 point assigned.
This criteria used company's growth potential to calculate its fair value:
Latest Revenue (2024-12-31): $6,540 M
Revenue 5 Years Ago (2019-12-31): $6,110 M
Total Growth over 5 Years: 7.0%
5-Year Revenue CAGR (Historical): 1.4%
Forward 5-Year CAGR (Tapered): 1.2%
Since historical Revenue CAGR is between 0 - 5, 1 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to buy back its own share:
Latest Share Count (2024-12-31): $120 M
Share Count 5 Years Ago (2020-12-31): $158 M
Company is buying back its own shares, 3 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's dividend payout ratio to determine its fair value:
Next Year Earnings Per Share (EPS): $1.20
Trailing 12-Month Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.18
Average Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.69
Dividend Per Share (DPS): $1
Payout Ratio: 116%
Dividend Yield: 3.34%
⚠️ Caution: Further research is recommended — dividend payout ratio is too high (116%).
Since company Payout Ratio is greater than 50, 1 point assigned.
Since Dividend Yield is greater than 3, 3 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Return On Equity (ROE%) to determine its fair value:
Using last 20 valid ROE years (max 20).Average ROE: 13.1%
Since Average ROE is between 10 - 20, 3 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's current price to its 52 week low price to determines its fair value:
Current Price: $19.4
52-Week Low: $17.35
Threshold Price (15% Above 52-Week Low): $19.95
Since Current price is within 15% threshold, 5 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Market Cap to determines its fair value:
Market Capitalization: $2,758 M
Since Market Cap is less than 10B, 1 point assigned.
% Exposure to Total Portfolio
Based on the market cap, we recommend do not exceed 2% exposure of Total Portfolio.
Warren Buffett's Owners' Earnings:
Owners' Earnings (FCF/Share) (TTM ending 2025-06-30): $2.27
Owners' Earnings (FCF/Share, latest positive annual) (2024-12-31): $2.58
Note: Many fast-growing companies reinvest heavily, so Owners' Earnings may appear low.
Consider other factors in your valuation.
Value-Trade has assigned 22 points to above Olin Corporation (OLN) stock.
Last 18 Years Avg PE
13.55, Fair Value PE
15, Industry Based PE
15, Growth Based PE
15, RCFC Based PE
7.69, ROE Based PE
13.06, Risk-Free Anchored PE (25% MoS)
18.47. Based on these 7 values, average assigned is
13.97. Value-Trades has assined P/E value
13.97. An average (Current Year EPS + Next Year EPS) earning per share is
$0.692.
Fair value using multiple P/Es (blended): $9.67 (PE 13.97 × EPS $0.69)
So the Final Fair Value is: $9.67
Understanding the Value-Trades P/E Blend (click to expand)
▾
What goes into the blended P/E?
- 20-Year Avg P/E — Long-run market baseline; conservative anchor.
- Fair Value P/E — Score-based (cash, debt, sector, etc.).
- Industry P/E — Peer group norm.
- Growth-Based P/E — Uses tapered growth rates, floored at 15.
- RCFC-Based P/E — Maps cash conversion efficiency.
- ROE-Based P/E — Higher ROE supports higher multiples.
- Risk-Free Anchored P/E — Macro floor tied to 10y yield w/ MoS.
How it works
- Extreme values are clamped/filtered (IQR method).
- Anchors (20y avg, RCFC/ROE, risk-free) are always kept if valid.
- Final fair value = min(Blended PE × EPS, Avg PE × EPS).
P/E Reference Summary
Using EPS: $0.69
Using Owners' Earnings (Latest FCF/Share): $2.27
Note: Many highly growing companies reinvest heavily back into the business,
so their Owners' Earnings may appear very low. In such cases, other criteria should
be considered to assess the company’s true worth.
| Source |
P/E Ratio |
Implied Fair Value |
| Market (1 Yr Ago) | 30.49 | $21.10 |
| 18 Yrs Avg-PE | 13.55 | $9.38 |
| Value-Trades Assigned | 13.97 | $9.67 |
| Owners' Earnings × 18 Yrs Avg-PE | 13.55 | $30.76 |
