* Note: Prices are in Million (M) USD.
Description:
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. is a branded product retailer. The company is headquartered in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.
These criteria used Company's Cash, EBITDA and Debt balance to determines its fair value:
Cash : $199 M
Debt : $649 M
EBITDA : $307 M
Net Debt (Debt - Cash): $450 M
Since Net Debt is covered by EBITDA within 2 years, 2 points assigned.
This criteria used industry in which company operates:
Sector: Consumer defensive
Industry: Discount stores
Based on industry, 3 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Price To Earning (P/E) Ratio to determines its fair value:
Forward PE Ratio: 32.44
Since Forward PE Ratio is between 25 - 35, 1 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to convert Sales into free cash flow to determine fair value:
Using last 12 overlapping fiscal years (max 20).Average Free Cash Flow: $76 M
Average Revenue: $1,360 M
Revenue Converted To Free Cash Flow (%): 5.6%
Since Free Cash Flow (FCF) to Revenue percentage is less than 15, 1 point assigned.
This criteria used company's growth potential to calculate its fair value:
Latest Revenue (2025-01-31): $2,272 M
Revenue 4 Years Ago (2021-01-31): $1,809 M
Last 5 Years Average Revenue Growth: 5%
Since Revenue Growth is between 5 - 10, 2 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to buy back its own share:
Latest Share Count (2025-01-31): $62 M
Share Count 5 Years Ago (2021-01-31): $66 M
Company is buying back its own shares, 3 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's dividend payout ratio to determine its fair value:
Next Year Earnings Per Share (EPS): $4.12
Trailing 12-Month Earnings Per Share (EPS): $3.70
Average Earnings Per Share (EPS): $3.91
Dividend Per Share (DPS): $0
Payout Ratio: 0%
Dividend Yield: 0%
Since Dividend Per Share is less than or equal to 0, 0 point assigned.
Since Dividend Yield is less than 1, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's Return On Equity (ROE%) to determine its fair value:
Using last 12 valid ROE years (max 20).Average ROE: 11.0%
Since Average ROE is between 10 - 20, 3 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's current price to its 52 week low price to determines its fair value:
Current Price: $127
52-Week Low: $87
Threshold Price (15% Above 52-Week Low): $100
Since Current price is not within 15% threshold, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's Market Cap to determines its fair value:
Market Capitalization: $7,781 M
Since Market Cap is less than 10B, 1 point assigned.
% Exposure to Total Portfolio
Based on the market cap, we recommend do not exceed 2% exposure of Total Portfolio.
Value-Trade has assigned 16 points to above Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg (OLLI) stock.
Heads up: One or more P/E inputs look exaggerated and may skew the blend.
• Last 7 Years Avg PE
35.39 (>2× median)
Further research is recommended; please use your own due diligence.In such cases, multiplying earnings by the long-run average P/E typically gives a closer, more reliable fair value.
Rule of thumb: Last 7 Years Avg P/E (35.39)
× EPS ($3.91) = $138.37.
Last 7 Years Avg PE 35.39, Fair Value PE 12, Industry Based PE 20, Growth Based PE 5, RCFC Based PE 16.45, ROE Based PE 18.79, Risk-Free Anchored PE (25% MoS) 17.08. Based on these 7 values, average assigned is 17.82. Value-Trades has assined P/E value 17.82. Since an average (Current Year EPS + Next Year EPS) earning per share is $3.91.
The fair value of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg (OLLI) stock should be (17.82 x $3.91) = $69.66.
