* Note: Prices are in Million (M) USD.
Description:
New Gold Inc., an intermediate gold mining company, is engaged in the development and operation of mineral properties. The company is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
These criteria used Company's Cash, EBITDA and Debt balance to determines its fair value:
Cash : $226 M
Debt : $660 M
EBITDA : $432 M
Net Debt (Debt - Cash): $434 M
Since Net Debt is covered by EBITDA within 2 years, 2 points assigned.
This criteria used industry in which company operates:
Sector: Energy & transportation
Industry: Metal mining
Based on industry, 3 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Price To Earning (P/E) Ratio to determines its fair value:
Forward PE Ratio: 8.37
Since Forward PE Ratio is less than 15, 5 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to convert Sales into free cash flow to determine fair value:
Using last 20 overlapping fiscal years (max 20).Average Free Cash Flow: $-64 M
Average Revenue: $550 M
Revenue Converted To Free Cash Flow (%): -11.7%
Since Free Cash Flow (FCF) to Revenue percentage is non-positive, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used company's growth potential to calculate its fair value:
Latest Revenue (2024-12-31): $925 M
Revenue 4 Years Ago (2020-12-31): $643 M
Last 5 Years Average Revenue Growth: 9%
Since Revenue Growth is between 5 - 10, 2 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to buy back its own share:
Latest Share Count (2024-12-31): $752 M
Share Count 5 Years Ago (2020-12-31): $676 M
Company is not buying back its own shares, 0 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's dividend payout ratio to determine its fair value:
Next Year Earnings Per Share (EPS): $1.00
Trailing 12-Month Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.55
Average Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.78
Dividend Per Share (DPS): $0
Payout Ratio: 0%
Dividend Yield: 0%
Since Dividend Per Share is less than or equal to 0, 0 point assigned.
Since Dividend Yield is less than 1, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's Return On Equity (ROE%) to determine its fair value:
Using last 20 valid ROE years (max 20).Average ROE: -10.8%
Since Average ROE is non-positive, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's current price to its 52 week low price to determines its fair value:
Current Price: $6
52-Week Low: $2
Threshold Price (15% Above 52-Week Low): $3
Since Current price is not within 15% threshold, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's Market Cap to determines its fair value:
Market Capitalization: $4,671 M
Since Market Cap is less than 10B, 1 point assigned.
% Exposure to Total Portfolio
Based on the market cap, we recommend do not exceed 2% exposure of Total Portfolio.
Value-Trade has assigned 13 points to above New Gold Inc (NGD) stock.
Heads up: One or more P/E inputs look exaggerated and may skew the blend.
• Last 10 Years Avg PE
28.16 (>2× median)
Further research is recommended; please use your own due diligence.In such cases, multiplying earnings by the long-run average P/E typically gives a closer, more reliable fair value.
Rule of thumb: Last 10 Years Avg P/E (28.16)
× EPS ($0.78) = $21.82.
Last 10 Years Avg PE
28.16, Fair Value PE
12, Industry Based PE
13, Growth Based PE
8.74, Risk-Free Anchored PE (25% MoS)
17.61. Based on these 5 values, average assigned is
15.90. Value-Trades has assined P/E value
15.90. An average (Current Year EPS + Next Year EPS) earning per share is
$0.775.
Note: Final fair value is the lesser of the blended PE-based fair value and the simple average PE × EPS fair value.Fair value using multiple P/Es (blended): $12.32 (PE 15.90 × EPS $0.78)
Fair value using simple average PE × EPS: $21.82 (PE 28.16 × EPS $0.78)
Lesser of these two: $12.32
So the Final Fair Value is: $12.32
