* Note: Prices are in Million (M) USD.
Description:
Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, develops messenger RNA-based vaccines and therapies for the treatment of infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and autoimmune diseases. The company is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
These criteria used Company's Cash, EBITDA and Debt balance to determines its fair value:
Cash : $2,595 M
Debt : $1,916 M
EBITDA : $-2,609 M
Since Ebitda is less than 0, 0 points assigned.
This criteria used industry in which company operates:
Sector: Healthcare
Industry: Biotechnology
Biotechnology detected → treating as non-Technology. 3 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Price To Earning (P/E) Ratio to determines its fair value:
Message: Cannot calculate PE Ratio since EPS is either 0 or negative.
Using default values for calculation.
Forward PE Ratio (using default values): 20.00
Since Forward PE Ratio is between 20 - 25, 2 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to convert Sales into free cash flow to determine fair value:
Using last 12 overlapping fiscal years (max 20).Average Free Cash Flow: $720 M
Average Revenue: $4,113 M
Revenue Converted To Free Cash Flow (%): 17.5%
Since Free Cash Flow (FCF) to Revenue percentage is greater than 15, 3 points assigned.
This criteria used company's growth potential to calculate its fair value:
Latest Revenue (2025-12-31): $1,944 M
Revenue 5 Years Ago (2020-12-31): $274 M
Total Growth over 5 Years: 608.2%
5-Year Revenue CAGR (Historical): 47.9%
Forward 5-Year CAGR (Tapered): 24.0%
Since historical Revenue CAGR is greater than 20, 5 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to buy back its own share:
Latest Share Count (2025-12-31): $389 M
Share Count 5 Years Ago (2021-12-31): $431 M
Company is buying back its own shares, 3 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's dividend payout ratio to determine its fair value:
Next Year Earnings Per Share (EPS): $-4.60
Trailing 12-Month Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.00
Average Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.00
Dividend Per Share (DPS): $0
Payout Ratio: 0%
Dividend Yield: 0.00%
⚠️ Caution: Negative earnings detected — Further research is recommended - Next Fiscal Yr EPS: $-4.60
Since Dividend Per Share is less than or equal to 0, 0 point assigned.
Since Dividend Yield is less than 1, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's Return On Equity (ROE%) to determine its fair value:
Using last 11 valid ROE years (max 20).Average ROE: -123.9%
Since Average ROE is non-positive, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's current price to its 52 week low price to determines its fair value:
Current Price: $49.87
52-Week Low: $22.28
Threshold Price (15% Above 52-Week Low): $25.62
Since Current price is not within 15% threshold, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's Market Cap to determines its fair value:
Market Capitalization: $19,486 M
Since Market Cap is between 10B - 100B, 2 points assigned.
% Exposure to Total Portfolio
Based on the market cap, we recommend do not exceed 3% exposure of Total Portfolio.
Warren Buffett's Owners' Earnings:
Owners' Earnings (FCF/Share, latest positive annual) (2022-12-31): $11.78
Note: Many fast-growing companies reinvest heavily, so Owners' Earnings may appear low.
Consider other factors in your valuation.
Value-Trade has assigned 18 points to above Moderna Inc (MRNA) stock.
Last 2 Years Avg PE 8.99, Fair Value PE 12, Industry Based PE 15, Growth Based PE 23.96, RCFC Based PE 17.51, Risk-Free Anchored PE (25% MoS) 17.81. Based on these 6 values, average assigned is 15.88. The fair value of Moderna Inc (MRNA) stock cannot be calculated since EBITDA and EPS are either 0 or negative.
