* Note: Prices are in Million (M) USD.
Description:
Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells custom, cruiser and touring motorcycles. The company is headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
These criteria used Company's Cash, EBITDA and Debt balance to determines its fair value:
Cash : $1,737 M
Debt : $6,855 M
EBITDA : $424 M
Net Debt (Debt - Cash): $5,117 M
Since EBITDA cannot cover net debt within 3 years, Avoid This Stock.
This criteria used industry in which company operates:
Sector: Consumer Cyclical
Industry: Recreational Vehicles
Based on industry, 3 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Price To Earning (P/E) Ratio to determines its fair value:
Forward PE Ratio: 8.83
Since Forward PE Ratio is less than 15, 5 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to convert Sales into free cash flow to determine fair value:
Average Free Cash Flow: $665 M
Average Revenue: $5,519 M
Revenue Converted To Free Cash Flow (%): 12%
Avg Free Cash Flow Growth Per Year (Last 5 Years): 15.38%
Since Free Cash Flow (FCF) to Revenue percentage is less than 15, 1 point assigned.
This criteria used company's growth potential to calculate its fair value:
Latest Revenue (2024-12-31): $5,187 M
Revenue 4 Years Ago (2020-12-31): $4,054 M
Last 5 Years Average Revenue Growth: 6%
Since Revenue Growth is between 5 - 10, 2 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to buy back its own share:
Latest Share Count (2024-12-31): $132 M
Share Count 5 Years Ago (2020-12-31): $154 M
Company is buying back its own shares, 3 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's dividend payout ratio to determine its fair value:
Next Year Earnings Per Share (EPS): $2.50
Trailing 12-Month Earnings Per Share (EPS): $4.00
Average Earnings Per Share (EPS): $3.25
Dividend Per Share (DPS): $1
Payout Ratio: 22%
Dividend Yield: 3%
Since company Payout Ratio is less than 50, 2 points assigned.
Since Dividend Yield is greater than 2, 2 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Return On Equity (ROE%) to determine its fair value:
Average ROE: 25%
Since Average ROE is greater than 20, 5 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's current price to its 52 week low price to determines its fair value:
Current Price: $29
52-Week Low: $20
Threshold Price (15% Above 52-Week Low): $23
Since Current price is not within 15% threshold, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's Market Cap to determines its fair value:
Market Capitalization: $3,365 M
Since Market Cap is less than 10B, 1 point assigned.
% Exposure to Total Portfolio
Based on the market cap, we recommend do not exceed 2% exposure of Total Portfolio.
Value-Trade has assigned 24 points to above Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) stock.
Last 18 Years Avg PE 14.27, Fair Value PE 15, Industry Based PE 18, Growth Based PE 5, RCFC Based PE 12. Based on these 5 values, average assigned is 12.85.
Value-Trades has assined P/E value 12.85. Since an average (Current Year EPS + Next Year EPS) earning per share is $3.25.
The fair value of Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) stock should be (12.85 x $3.25) = $41.76
