* Note: Prices are in Million (M) USD.
Description:
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. The company is headquartered in Emeryville, California.
These criteria used Company's Cash, EBITDA and Debt balance to determines its fair value:
Cash : $55 M
Debt : $1,762 M
EBITDA : $101 M
Net Debt (Debt - Cash): $1,707 M
Since EBITDA cannot cover net debt within 3 years, Avoid This Stock.
This criteria used industry in which company operates:
Sector: Retail trade
Industry: Supermarkets and other grocery (except convenience) stores
Based on industry, 3 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Price To Earning (P/E) Ratio to determines its fair value:
Forward PE Ratio: 21.82
Since Forward PE Ratio is between 20 - 25, 2 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to convert Sales into free cash flow to determine fair value:
Using last 9 overlapping fiscal years (max 20).Average Free Cash Flow: $27 M
Average Revenue: $2,988 M
Revenue Converted To Free Cash Flow (%): 0.9%
Since Free Cash Flow (FCF) to Revenue percentage is less than 15, 1 point assigned.
This criteria used company's growth potential to calculate its fair value:
Latest Revenue (2024-12-31): $4,372 M
Revenue 4 Years Ago (2020-12-31): $3,135 M
Last 5 Years Average Revenue Growth: 8%
Since Revenue Growth is between 5 - 10, 2 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to buy back its own share:
Latest Share Count (2024-12-31): $100 M
Share Count 5 Years Ago (2020-12-31): $98 M
Company is not buying back its own shares, 0 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's dividend payout ratio to determine its fair value:
Next Year Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.88
Trailing 12-Month Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.78
Average Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.83
Dividend Per Share (DPS): $0
Payout Ratio: 0%
Dividend Yield: 0%
Since Dividend Per Share is less than or equal to 0, 0 point assigned.
Since Dividend Yield is less than 1, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's Return On Equity (ROE%) to determine its fair value:
Using last 8 valid ROE years (max 20).Average ROE: 5.7%
Since Average ROE is less than 10, 1 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's current price to its 52 week low price to determines its fair value:
Current Price: $18
52-Week Low: $10
Threshold Price (15% Above 52-Week Low): $12
Since Current price is not within 15% threshold, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's Market Cap to determines its fair value:
Market Capitalization: $1,819 M
Since Market Cap is less than 10B, 1 point assigned.
% Exposure to Total Portfolio
Based on the market cap, we recommend do not exceed 2% exposure of Total Portfolio.
Value-Trade has assigned 10 points to above Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO) stock.
Last 6 Years Avg PE 28.4, Fair Value PE 12, Industry Based PE 20, Growth Based PE 7, RCFC Based PE 12.74, ROE Based PE 14.56, Risk-Free Anchored PE (25% MoS) 17.08. Based on these 7 values, average assigned is 15.97. Value-Trades has assined P/E value 15.97. Since an average (Current Year EPS + Next Year EPS) earning per share is $0.83.
The fair value of Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO) stock should be (15.97 x $0.83) = $13.25.
