* Note: Prices are in Million (M) USD.
Description:
Krispy Kreme, Inc. (DNUT) is a leading retailer and wholesaler renowned for its iconic donuts, along with a wide array of coffee and complementary beverages. Headquartered in Winston-Salem, North Carolina, the company has established a strong brand presence and a loyal customer base through both its physical stores and a growing e-commerce platform. With a commitment to quality and innovation in the baked goods sector, Krispy Kreme continues to expand its offerings and market reach, making it a noteworthy investment opportunity in the food and beverage industry.
These criteria used Company's Cash, EBITDA and Debt balance to determines its fair value:
Cash : $21 M
Debt : $585 M
EBITDA : $-267 M
Net Debt (Debt - Cash): $563 M
Since Ebitda is less than 0, 0 points assigned.
This criteria used industry in which company operates:
Sector: Trade & services
Industry: Retail-food stores
Based on industry, 3 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Price To Earning (P/E) Ratio to determines its fair value:
Message: Cannot calculate PE Ratio since EPS is either 0 or negative.
Using default values for calculation.
Forward PE Ratio (using default values): 20.00
Since Forward PE Ratio is between 20 - 25, 2 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to convert Sales into free cash flow to determine fair value:
Using last 12 overlapping fiscal years (max 20).Average Free Cash Flow: $10 M
Average Revenue: $954 M
Revenue Converted To Free Cash Flow (%): 1.1%
Since Free Cash Flow (FCF) to Revenue percentage is less than 15, 1 point assigned.
This criteria used company's growth potential to calculate its fair value:
Latest Revenue (2024-12-31): $1,665 M
Revenue 5 Years Ago (2019-12-31): $959 M
Total Growth over 5 Years: 73.6%
5-Year Revenue CAGR (Historical): 11.7%
Forward 5-Year CAGR (Tapered): 9.3%
Since historical Revenue CAGR is between 10 - 15, 3 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to buy back its own share:
Latest Share Count (2024-12-31): $172 M
Share Count 5 Years Ago (2020-12-31): $165 M
Company is not buying back its own shares, 0 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's dividend payout ratio to determine its fair value:
Next Year Earnings Per Share (EPS): $-0.07
Trailing 12-Month Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.00
Average Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.00
Dividend Per Share (DPS): $0
Payout Ratio: 0%
Dividend Yield: 3%
⚠️ Caution: Negative earnings detected — Further research is recommended - Next Fiscal Yr EPS: $-0.07
EPS is non-positive; payout ratio not meaningful. 0 point assigned.
Since Dividend Yield is greater than 2, 2 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Return On Equity (ROE%) to determine its fair value:
Using last 11 valid ROE years (max 20).Average ROE: 8.3%
Since Average ROE is less than 10, 1 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's current price to its 52 week low price to determines its fair value:
Current Price: $3.55
52-Week Low: $2.50
Threshold Price (15% Above 52-Week Low): $2.88
Since Current price is not within 15% threshold, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's Market Cap to determines its fair value:
Market Capitalization: $627 M
Since Market Cap is less than 10B, 1 point assigned.
% Exposure to Total Portfolio
Based on the market cap, we recommend do not exceed 1% exposure of Total Portfolio.
Warren Buffett's Owners' Earnings:
Owners' Earnings (FCF/Share, latest positive annual) (2022-12-31): $0.16
Note: Many fast-growing companies reinvest heavily, so Owners' Earnings may appear low.
Consider other factors in your valuation.
Value-Trade has assigned 13 points to above Krispy Kreme Inc (DNUT) stock.
Heads up: One or more P/E inputs look exaggerated and may skew the blend.
• Last 2 Years Avg PE 39.28 (>2× median)
Further research is recommended; please use your own due diligence.
In such cases, multiplying earnings by the long-run average P/E typically gives a closer, more reliable fair value.
Last 2 Years Avg PE 39.28, Fair Value PE 12, Industry Based PE 18, Growth Based PE 15, RCFC Based PE 1.06, ROE Based PE 8.33, Risk-Free Anchored PE (25% MoS) 18.2. Based on these 7 values, average assigned is 15.98. The fair value of Krispy Kreme Inc (DNUT) stock cannot be calculated since EBITDA and EPS are either 0 or negative.
