* Note: Prices are in Million (M) USD.
Description:
These criteria used Company's Cash, EBITDA and Debt balance to determines its fair value:
Cash : $1,739 M
Debt : $10,705 M
EBITDA : $1,847 M
Net Debt (Debt - Cash): $8,966 M
Since EBITDA cannot cover net debt within 3 years, Avoid This Stock.
This criteria used industry in which company operates:
Sector: Financial services
Industry: Asset management
Based on industry, 3 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Price To Earning (P/E) Ratio to determines its fair value:
Forward PE Ratio: 14.17
Since Forward PE Ratio is less than 15, 5 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to convert Sales into free cash flow to determine fair value:
Using last 17 overlapping fiscal years (max 20).Average Free Cash Flow: $966 M
Average Revenue: $2,742 M
Revenue Converted To Free Cash Flow (%): 35.2%
Since Free Cash Flow (FCF) to Revenue percentage is greater than 25, 5 points assigned.
This criteria used company's growth potential to calculate its fair value:
Latest Revenue (2024-12-31): $4,088 M
Revenue 4 Years Ago (2020-12-31): $2,134 M
Last 5 Years Average Revenue Growth: 18%
Since Revenue Growth is between 15 - 20, 4 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to buy back its own share:
Latest Share Count (2024-12-31): $368 M
Share Count 5 Years Ago (2020-12-31): $358 M
Company is not buying back its own shares, 0 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's dividend payout ratio to determine its fair value:
Next Year Earnings Per Share (EPS): $4.82
Trailing 12-Month Earnings Per Share (EPS): $4.27
Average Earnings Per Share (EPS): $4.55
Dividend Per Share (DPS): $1
Payout Ratio: 31%
Dividend Yield: 2%
Since company Payout Ratio is less than 50, 2 points assigned.
Since Dividend Yield is greater than 2, 2 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Return On Equity (ROE%) to determine its fair value:
Using last 16 valid ROE years (max 20).Average ROE: 43.2%
Since Average ROE is greater than 20, 5 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's current price to its 52 week low price to determines its fair value:
Current Price: $64
52-Week Low: $33
Threshold Price (15% Above 52-Week Low): $37
Since Current price is not within 15% threshold, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's Market Cap to determines its fair value:
Market Capitalization: $22,534 M
Since Market Cap is between 10B - 100B, 2 points assigned.
% Exposure to Total Portfolio
Based on the market cap, we recommend do not exceed 3% exposure of Total Portfolio.
Value-Trade has assigned 28 points to above Carlyle Group Inc (CG) stock.
Heads up: One or more P/E inputs look exaggerated and may skew the blend.
• RCFC Based PE
38.19 (>2× median)
• ROE Based PE
44.53 (>2× median)
Further research is recommended; please use your own due diligence.In such cases, multiplying earnings by the long-run average P/E typically gives a closer, more reliable fair value.
Rule of thumb: Last 12 Years Avg P/E (12.62)
× EPS ($4.55) = $57.36.
Last 12 Years Avg PE 12.62, Fair Value PE 15, Industry Based PE 15, Growth Based PE 18, RCFC Based PE 38.19, ROE Based PE 44.53, Risk-Free Anchored PE (25% MoS) 17.08. Based on these 7 values, average assigned is 22.92. Value-Trades has assined P/E value 22.92. Since an average (Current Year EPS + Next Year EPS) earning per share is $4.545.
The fair value of Carlyle Group Inc (CG) stock should be (22.92 x $4.545) = $104.16.
