* Note: Prices are in Million (M) USD.
Description:
Burlington Stores, Inc. is a branded apparel retailer in the United States. The company is headquartered in Burlington, New Jersey.
These criteria used Company's Cash, EBITDA and Debt balance to determines its fair value:
Cash : $371 M
Debt : $5,329 M
EBITDA : $1,124 M
Net Debt (Debt - Cash): $4,958 M
Since EBITDA cannot cover net debt within 3 years, Avoid This Stock.
This criteria used industry in which company operates:
Sector: Consumer defensive
Industry: Discount stores
Based on industry, 3 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's Price To Earning (P/E) Ratio to determines its fair value:
Forward PE Ratio: 30.52
Since Forward PE Ratio is between 25 - 35, 1 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to convert Sales into free cash flow to determine fair value:
Using last 15 overlapping fiscal years (max 20).Average Free Cash Flow: $222 M
Average Revenue: $6,400 M
Revenue Converted To Free Cash Flow (%): 3.5%
Since Free Cash Flow (FCF) to Revenue percentage is less than 15, 1 point assigned.
This criteria used company's growth potential to calculate its fair value:
Latest Revenue (2025-01-31): $10,635 M
Revenue 4 Years Ago (2021-01-31): $5,764 M
Last 5 Years Average Revenue Growth: 17%
Since Revenue Growth is between 15 - 20, 4 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's ability to buy back its own share:
Latest Share Count (2025-01-31): $65 M
Share Count 5 Years Ago (2021-01-31): $66 M
Company is buying back its own shares, 3 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's dividend payout ratio to determine its fair value:
Next Year Earnings Per Share (EPS): $9.99
Trailing 12-Month Earnings Per Share (EPS): $9.06
Average Earnings Per Share (EPS): $9.53
Dividend Per Share (DPS): $0
Payout Ratio: 0%
Dividend Yield: 0%
Since Dividend Per Share is less than or equal to 0, 0 point assigned.
Since Dividend Yield is less than 1, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's Return On Equity (ROE%) to determine its fair value:
Using last 8 valid ROE years (max 20).Average ROE: 95.9%
Since Average ROE is greater than 20, 5 points assigned.
This criteria used Company's current price to its 52 week low price to determines its fair value:
Current Price: $291
52-Week Low: $213
Threshold Price (15% Above 52-Week Low): $245
Since Current price is not within 15% threshold, 0 point assigned.
This criteria used Company's Market Cap to determines its fair value:
Market Capitalization: $17,386 M
Since Market Cap is between 10B - 100B, 2 points assigned.
% Exposure to Total Portfolio
Based on the market cap, we recommend do not exceed 3% exposure of Total Portfolio.
Value-Trade has assigned 19 points to above Burlington Stores Inc (BURL) stock.
Heads up: One or more P/E inputs look exaggerated and may skew the blend.
• Last 9 Years Avg PE
35.74 (>2× median)
• ROE Based PE
50.00 (>2× median)
Further research is recommended; please use your own due diligence.In such cases, multiplying earnings by the long-run average P/E typically gives a closer, more reliable fair value.
Rule of thumb: Last 9 Years Avg P/E (35.74)
× EPS ($9.53) = $340.42.
Last 9 Years Avg PE 35.74, Fair Value PE 12, Industry Based PE 15, Growth Based PE 16, RCFC Based PE 14.78, ROE Based PE 50, Risk-Free Anchored PE (25% MoS) 17.08. Based on these 7 values, average assigned is 22.94. Value-Trades has assined P/E value 22.94. Since an average (Current Year EPS + Next Year EPS) earning per share is $9.525.
The fair value of Burlington Stores Inc (BURL) stock should be (22.94 x $9.525) = $218.54.
