Daily Coffee Report 4/6/26
The daily coffee report from April 6, 2026, highlights a slow session for Arabica futures with low trading volume, largely due to a holiday in London and participant absence. The market remained near the 300 strike, influenced by the upcoming May Arabica options expiry and the start of the index fund roll period. Spread analysis indicates ongoing concerns about nearby commercial cash shorts, despite the May/July spread easing.
Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for April 6
This mid-day commentary from April 6 discusses rising tensions regarding the Strait of Hormuz as President Trump's ultimatum nears and Iran rejects peace proposals. Despite geopolitical rhetoric, stocks firmed, and the VIX slipped. The article also covers commodity market movements, including WTI crude oil and Brent prices, and agricultural commodities like Kansas City wheat, corn, and soybeans, highlighting export inspection data and USDA targets.
Blue Bottle’s New Era: Inside the Under‑$400M Sale Reshaping the Global Coffee Landscape
Centurium Capital, the controlling shareholder of Luckin Coffee, is acquiring Blue Bottle Coffee's global café operations from Nestlé for under $400 million, a significant markdown from Nestlé's initial asking price. Nestlé will retain ownership of Blue Bottle's consumer packaged-goods business, allowing Centurium to expand its presence in the premium coffee market while Nestlé focuses on retail. This acquisition marks a significant shift in the global coffee landscape, with a Chinese conglomerate taking ownership of a renowned Western artisanal brand.
StoneX Group (SNEX) Is Up 7.7% After Launching New Securitization And Ag-Tech Partnerships Has The Bull Case Changed?
StoneX Group (SNEX) has seen a 7.7% increase in its stock price following the launch of new securitization and ag-tech partnerships. These initiatives, including collaborations with The Pathfinder Group and Bushel, aim to expand StoneX's capabilities in payments, structured finance, and grain merchandising. While these moves align with the company's strategy of integrating technology-driven financial infrastructure, the article cautions that the stock may be overextended, and acknowledges varying analyst opinions on its fair value.
Arabica Coffee Futures Open Interest Down 2.078 contracts, Nov…
Open interest for Arabica coffee futures at ICE Futures declined by 2,078 contracts to 284,591 on November 9, with a volume of 75,615. The article highlights this specific financial data point regarding coffee futures.
Precious Metals Talking points 062025: Video interview on PGM at IPMI
Rhona O'Connell, Head of Market Analysis, discusses Platinum Group Metals (PGM) and some gold at the IPMI conference. This article highlights key insights from her video interview, offering market commentary and viewpoints on precious metals. It emphasizes that the views are current as of June 20, 2025, and encourages readers to contact StoneX Financial Pte Ltd for further inquiries.
StoneX Group (SNEX) Is a Great Choice for 'Trend' Investors, Here's Why
StoneX Group (SNEX) is highlighted as a strong choice for 'trend' investors due to its recent price strength and solid fundamentals. The stock has shown significant gains over the past 12 weeks and four weeks, maintaining an uptrend. With a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and a "Strong Buy" average broker recommendation, SNEX is positioned for continued positive performance.
Coffee Stocks in European Ports Down 10% Year on Year
Coffee stocks in European ports declined by 7.1% year-on-year in March 2023 and by 10.1% year-on-year in April 2023, according to data from the European Coffee Federation (ECF). Despite the annual decrease, April saw a 1.1% increase in stocks month-on-month. The report details the types of coffee making up the April stocks and provides analysis from a managing editor.
Arabica Futures Fall in Quiet Session
Arabica coffee futures experienced a 1.90 drop for the July contract, closing at 204.70 in a quiet session influenced by lower cocoa prices. While harvesting in Brazil and upcoming crop surveys from CONAB and USDA reports for Honduras and Colombia are expected, much of this information is already factored into prices. Robusta futures also saw a decrease, though a bullish sentiment persists due to concerns over dwindling yields in Vietnam and Indonesia amid increasing demand.
Farmer Fertilizer Focus - Urea
This StoneX report, "Farmer Fertilizer Focus - Urea," highlights the upward price pressure on urea due to slowed Midwest nitrogen production, strong international demand from regions like India and Brazil, and China's continued halt on exports. Despite recent price increases, StoneX believes there's more upside than downside risk for urea prices through June, citing factors like current import shortfalls in North America and producers being comfortably sold globally. The article provides key urea highlights and NOLA price movements, advising farmers to stay informed about fertilizer market dynamics.
EUR/USD headed for 105?
The EUR/USD is expected to continue its decline towards 1.05 due to the ECB effectively ending its rate hiking cycle and the Federal Reserve maintaining higher rates. This comes as recent US economic data exceeded expectations, supporting a "soft landing" narrative, while the ECB's staff forecasts indicate inflation will remain above target for the next couple of years despite recent rate hikes. Large speculators are increasing their net-short exposure to EUR/USD futures, suggesting further downside.
Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for April 2
This mid-day commentary for April 2nd focuses on market reactions to developments in the Middle East, particularly concerns about the Strait of Hormuz closure and Iran's demands. It also covers the performance of stocks, oil, treasuries, and agricultural commodities, along with details of U.S. corn, soybean, and wheat export sales. The article highlights the mixed market sentiment due to geopolitical tensions and commodity-specific factors.
Perspective: Morning Commentary for April 2
This morning commentary by Arlan Suderman discusses how stock futures tumbled and commodity prices surged following President Trump's address, leading to elevated fear levels in the market. Trump's ultimatum to Iran and the impending Good Friday holiday exacerbated volatility, with investors concerned about the Strait of Hormuz closure impacting energy and fertilizer movement. The article also touches on recent unemployment claims and job cut reports, attributing current market movements in grains and oilseeds to ongoing geopolitical headlines.
Financial Markets Morning Commentary
Financial markets experienced significant volatility following President Trump’s statements on intensifying strikes against Iran, leading to soaring WTI oil prices (highest since March 9 peak at $119.50) and a drop in stock market futures. Blue Owl's private credit funds also limited investor withdrawals, further impacting market sentiment. Key economic data released included initial jobless claims at 202K and Challenger layoffs at 60.62K for March, while international bodies announced coordination group formation to address Middle East war economic impacts.
Refining and Vault Control Have Become the New Metals Moat
The global precious metals markets are increasingly defined by volatility and disruptions, shifting competitive advantage towards firms that control infrastructure like vaulting and refining rather than just price forecasting. StoneX, led by Michael Skinner, has expanded its vertically integrated metals franchise, demonstrating that owning refining capacity and CME-accredited vaults significantly enhances liquidity power and market control in gold and silver. This strategy helps StoneX capture margins and reduce dependency on third parties, positioning it strongly amid tightening physical supply.
Chart Update *Technical Ag Knowledge Video for 4/1/26*
Tom Dosdall, a Risk Management Consultant, introduces two new indicators designed to help clients time their trades and hedges more effectively. The video, released on April 1, 2026, analyzes various agricultural markets. Key discussions include corn nearing a three-month bull trend support line, wheat, soybean bias, a triple top in rice, and a new trend bias in live cattle.
Nonfarm Payrolls Expected to Rise After ADP, ISM
Despite similar ADP and ISM employment components to last month, nonfarm payrolls are expected to show an increase on Friday, avoiding another monthly job loss. The ADP report implied a +133K payroll number, and the ISM manufacturing PMI employment component suggested around +245K, indicating a positive outcome for the upcoming jobs report. This positive expectation comes even as markets are closed for Good Friday when the report is due.
EIA Weekly Petroleum Data Recap
The EIA weekly petroleum data for the week ending March 27 showed a larger-than-expected rise in crude oil stocks, increasing by 5.451 million barrels. Gasoline stocks fell less than anticipated, and gasoline demand decreased, while distillate stocks saw a steeper decline than expected. Overall, combined balances of oil, gasoline, and distillates remained in surplus compared to the five-year averages.
Nat Gas Prices Receiving Less Support from Cold Temps
Natural gas futures are not receiving significant support from cold weather, with a bearish seasonal pattern expected until mid-April. While some below-normal temperatures are forecast, they are unlikely to create lasting enthusiasm or significantly impact prices. The market's focus for potential bullish movement will shift to LNG exports as the likelihood of prolonged, extremely cold weather diminishes.
Perspective: Morning Commentary for April 1
This morning commentary by Arlan Suderman discusses the market reactions to hopes of an early end to the Iran conflict, leading to lower crude oil and food-based commodity prices. It details President Trump's negotiating tactics regarding the Strait of Hormuz and NATO, and the potential economic impacts on global fuel supplies. The report also covers positive U.S. economic data from the ADP employment report and retail sales, contrasting with bearish sentiment in grain and oilseed markets due to war headlines.
Gold 2026 Outlook: What’s in store for XAU/USD in Q2?
Gold experienced a significant drop in March 2026, nearly eradicating its Q1 gains, driven by the escalation of the Iran conflict, surging oil prices, a stronger dollar, and rising bond yields. The outlook for Q2 2026 heavily depends on the evolution of the Middle East situation, its impact on energy prices, inflation, and subsequent central bank policies. Despite a weakened bullish trend, central bank buying and ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to provide underlying support, though a cautious, level-to-level trading approach is advised.
GBP/USD Q2 Outlook: Can the Pound Withstand the Energy Shock and Dollar Safe-Haven Demand?
The GBP/USD fell in Q1 after an initial strong start due to geopolitical tensions, high oil prices, and increased demand for safe-haven assets. The UK economy faces a difficult Q2 with high inflation and slowing growth, making the Bank of England's policy response challenging. Meanwhile, the USD is expected to remain strong in Q2, driven by safe-haven demand from the Middle East conflict and reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Q2 2026 US Indices Outlook: It’s Not Liberation Day but It’s Quite Similar
This article provides an outlook for US indices in Q2 2026, drawing parallels to a previous year's market conditions characterized by pullbacks from record highs and political influence. The author, James Stanley, suggests that despite current downturns, a bullish bias remains prudent for long-term investors, identifying potential buying opportunities in the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, and Russell 2000. The piece also discusses the "TACO" trade theory and the Federal Reserve's likely stance on maintaining strong equity markets.
Precious Metals 033125: Weekly round-up and outlook for StoneX Bullion
The article provides a weekly round-up and outlook for StoneX Bullion, focusing on gold and silver performance. Gold continues to defy gravity, reaching new nominal highs due to geopolitics and economic uncertainty, while silver remains vulnerable despite constructive long-term fundamentals. The report also details CME warehouse movements, CFTC positioning, and ETF trends for both precious metals.
Precious Metals talking points 042122: The Fed Beige Book
This article discusses the Fed's Beige Book report, highlighting insights into the U.S. economy, tight labor markets, and inflationary pressures. It notes that while economic activity expanded moderately, the outlook was clouded by geopolitical events and rising prices. The author also anticipates the upcoming FOMC meeting regarding interest rates and balance sheet reduction, linking these to the precious metals market.
Uganda Coffee Exports Jump 17% in July Touching Record Levels
Uganda's coffee exports in July 2020 reached a record 543,251 60-kilo bags, valued at US$49.78 million, marking a 17.15% increase in quantity and 13.67% in value year-over-year. This surge is attributed to increased production from new plantings, favorable weather, and exporters drawing down on stocks post-COVID-19 lockdown. Italy remained the largest market, with Europe accounting for 57.36% of imports.
Arabica Futures Sharply Lower on Tariff News
Arabica futures experienced a sharp decline due to news concerning potential tariffs on coffee imports from major producing countries like Brazil and Vietnam. Optimism arose after US President Trump and Brazilian President Lula discussed exemptions from a 50% tariff, and a trade deal between the US and Vietnam could also see coffee exempt from a 20% tariff. Additionally, a new cold front in Brazil is expected to bring beneficial rain for the upcoming coffee crop, further contributing to the market's reaction.
StoneX View to Year-End / Turn of the Year
StoneX forecasts that base metal prices will remain volatile into early 2025, driven by macroeconomic factors like the strong US dollar and Chinese stimulus concerns, especially after a mixed performance in 2024. While H1 2024 saw gains due to speculative investments, H2 faced losses. Strengthening fundamental issues around supply disruptions, particularly in zinc, copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel, are expected to provide some support in H1 2025, even as investor caution persists.
Daily Coffee Report - 02/03/25
The Daily Coffee Report for February 3, 2025, from StoneX Coffee Team, details the continued upward trend in coffee futures, with Arabica reaching new highs for the ninth consecutive session. It highlights the divergence between New York and London terminal markets and discusses the impact of US-Canada-Mexico tariff negotiations on risk markets. The report also mentions approaching index fund roll and current currency values against the US dollar.
Arabica Futures Touch 14-Month Low, Dollar Firms
Arabica coffee futures have fallen to a 14-month low due to a strong US dollar, weakening Latin American currencies, and an improved outlook for global supply. The strengthening dollar impacted the broader commodity market, while forecasts for beneficial weather in Brazil suggest higher coffee yields for the upcoming crop season. Robustra futures also declined as Vietnam and Indonesia continue strong exports.
Morning Commentary for March 26
This morning commentary provides an overview of the financial markets on March 26, noting that the Dow Jones is expected to give back gains, crude oil is on the rise, and NASDAQ and S&P 500 futures point to declines. Geopolitical tensions involving the US, Iran, and Israel continue to impact market stability, while domestic economic data shows low jobless claims. The report also highlights upcoming agricultural market reports and recent export sales figures for corn and soybeans.
Daily Coffee Report 3/25/26
The coffee market experienced a relatively quiet session on March 25, 2026, with flat-price futures unable to extend gains despite a previous rally. New York front-month May futures retreated, and spreads softened across the board. Robusta prices remained quiet, and certified stocks continued to decrease, though basis offers from Southeast Asia eased with the flat price rally.
CONAB to Update Arabica Production Costs for Coffee Farmers in Bahia
CONAB will update Arabica coffee production costs for farmers in Bahia, Brazil, using data from the municipality of Luís Eduardo Magalhães. These updated costs are critical for determining minimum prices, calculating guaranteed values for the Price Guarantee Program for Family Agriculture (PGPAF), and serving as a reference for credit programs. The current minimum price of R $606.6600, which is set to expire soon, was a significant increase from the previous crop year's R $369.40.
Nasdaq Patterns Signal a Looming Equity Market Shift
U.S. equity markets, specifically the Nasdaq and Dow Jones, are at a critical technical juncture, with patterns suggesting a potential shift. The Nasdaq shows a possible double top formation below 26,300, while the Dow Jones has failed to break psychological resistance at 50,000, aligning with prior overbought reversals. These technical signals, combined with geopolitical uncertainties, indicate a higher likelihood of sharp directional moves and potential downside risks.
The Metals Markets outlook webinar; did we change any minds? We did!
This article summarizes the results of a Metals Markets Outlook Webinar, detailing how participants' views on precious and base metals changed after the presentations. It highlights shifts in sentiment for silver, gold, palladium, and platinum, and discusses the outlook for various base metals like tin, copper, nickel, lead, and zinc, based on regional participant responses and market factors. The author, Rhona O'Connell, suggests that long-term fundamental analysis influenced participants more than historical relationships for some metals.
Peru’s Cocoa Exports in January-November Rise 17.75% On The Year
Peru's cocoa exports increased by 17.75% year-on-year in January-November 2025, reaching 108,056 tonnes and generating US$878.55 million in FOB value. The strong performance was driven by high international demand and favorable market conditions, with an average export price of US$8,131 per tonne. The Netherlands, Malaysia, and the United States were the top destinations, indicating robust global valuation for Peruvian cocoa.
Canada Know-Risk Market Outlook | Feb WASDE Neutral
The February WASDE report was released with expectations met, showing reduced Argentinian corn and soybean production while Brazilian output remained largely unchanged. Ethanol and crush demand for corn and soybeans were reduced, leading to slight increases in ending stocks. Traders are anticipating further reductions in the March WASDE report as the USDA is expected to align with the Rosario Grains Exchange's lower estimates for Argentinian production.
Testing Video 03242026
The article titled "Testing Video 03242026" is a test piece by Samuel Aryal. It includes placeholder text for content and mentions "Outlook 2026" being available. The content also delves into StoneX Group Inc.'s financial services, outlining its offerings in global market access, digital platforms, and risk management across various financial markets like commodities, securities, and forex.
StoneX ties farmer apps to grain hedging as platform tops 1B bushels
Bushel and StoneX (NASDAQ: SNEX) have partnered to integrate Bushel's farmer-facing digital tools with StoneX Hedge, linking grain offers, hedges, contracts, and settlements. This collaboration aims to increase digital offer volume, improve hedge accuracy, and streamline data across systems for grain merchandisers. StoneX Hedge has already seen significant adoption, with customers hedging over 1 billion bushels in the first six fiscal months, demonstrating the platform's forward momentum.
Boots on the Ground field chronicles trailer - Meet our trade experts
StoneX presents its "Boots on the Ground" series, showcasing experts who grew up in the industries they now advise. The series highlights their first-hand insights from diverse agricultural settings, emphasizing personalized risk management and client trust. StoneX offers comprehensive solutions for volatile commodity markets, leveraging its global network and commitment to client-first service to deliver actionable intelligence.
Bushel and StoneX Partner to Connect Farmer-Facing Tools with Grain Merchandising Workflows
Bushel and StoneX have announced a partnership to integrate Bushel’s farmer-facing digital tools with StoneX Hedge, enhancing grain merchandising workflows. This collaboration aims to improve digital offer volume, hedge accuracy, reduce manual entry, and provide real-time data flow for grain companies. The solution will create a smoother experience for both merchandisers and farmers, benefiting mid- to large-sized elevators, commercial grain companies, and co-ops.
StoneX TV: Copper Prices Surge as Debasement Trade Spills Over
Copper prices are surging due to supportive structural fundamentals, including underinvestment in mining and increasing demand from green energy, coupled with a broader financial market debasement trade making hard assets attractive. Despite this, the article argues that copper prices above $13,000/t are unsustainable due to strong speculative positioning, weakening Chinese demand, and significant global stock levels, predicting a sharp correction. It also addresses the impact of AI demand on copper, noting it currently accounts for a small percentage of total demand.
Colombia Breaches Export Contracts Amid Roadblocks: FNC
Colombian coffee exporters have breached export contracts due to widespread roadblocks, lootings, and anti-government protests that are preventing coffee from reaching ports, according to Roberto Velez Vallejo, general manager of the coffee growers federation. This situation is directly impacting the coffee industry, leading to concerns that international buyers may no longer pay a premium for Colombian coffee, despite previously strong market performance. The protests, initially against a tax reform, have also caused severe problems for coffee growers, whose warehouses are at maximum capacity because they cannot transport or sell their beans, leading to financial strain.
Precious Metals Talking points 032326: StoneX weekly gold, silver round-up; rout
Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, experienced a significant rout driven by Middle East tensions and a hawkish Fed meeting, with gold dropping to $4,126 and silver down 50% from its January peak. However, a reported Trump tweet about progress in Iran talks sparked a swift rebound. Despite this bounce, StoneX believes the metals' highs are likely in, as central banks and ETFs show reduced buying interest.
CAB Payments Rejects Takeover Approach from StoneX
CAB Payments has rejected a cash offer from StoneX Group Inc., stating the proposal of 95 pence per share "significantly undervalues" the business and its medium-term prospects. The Independent Board, after assessing the offer and consulting with major shareholders, concluded that the price does not reflect the company's financial and operational improvements or its growth outlook. CAB Payments emphasized its strategic value in its business model, client relationships, emerging-market payments network, and regulated platform, which underpin confidence in delivering attractive shareholder returns.
China Direct-Feature Report
China's economy in Jan-Feb 2026 saw a strong surge in exports (21.8% YoY), making them the primary growth driver, while domestic consumption rebounded modestly due to seasonal factors but lacked sustained momentum. Investment showed marginal recovery, supported by infrastructure and manufacturing, contrasting with the persistent drag from the real estate sector. The report highlights structural resilience amid short-term uncertainties, noting that the production-dominant model implies exports will remain robust to balance overcapacity, impacting commodity demand with increased interest in industrial metals for high-end manufacturing.
StoneX Group Inc. cancelled the acquisition of CAB Payments Holdings Limited.
StoneX Group Inc. (NasdaqGS:SNEX) withdrew its proposal to acquire CAB Payments Holdings Limited (LSE:CABP). The acquisition, initially valued at £241 million, was cancelled after CAB Payments' Independent Board unanimously concluded that the offer significantly undervalued the company and its future prospects. CAB Payments shareholders have been advised to take no action.
CAB Payments rejects StoneX possible acquisition offer
CAB Payments has rejected an unsolicited non-binding acquisition proposal from StoneX Group Inc for 95 pence per share, stating that the offer significantly undervalues the company and its future prospects. The Independent Board, after evaluating the proposal and consulting with major shareholders, concluded the offer did not reflect the company's improved financial performance and medium-term guidance. There is no certainty that StoneX will make another offer.
CAB Payments rejects £241 million StoneX takeover approach
CAB Payments has rejected a £241 million takeover bid from StoneX Group, stating the offer significantly undervalues the company. The proposed 95 pence per share from StoneX was higher than a previous 85p per share bid from the Helios Consortium. CAB Payments' independent board, after consulting with shareholders and reviewing improved financial performance, concluded that the offer was not in the best interest of shareholders and advised them to take no action.
Insider Sell: Annabelle Bexiga Sells 1,000 Shares of StoneX Grou
Annabelle Bexiga, a Director at StoneX Group Inc (SNEX), sold 1,000 shares of the company on March 13, 2026. This transaction continues a trend of insider selling at StoneX, which has seen 22 insider sells against 2 buys over the past year. The stock is currently trading at $106.54, making it modestly overvalued according to its GF Value of $95.08.
